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feat(data): comprehensive ECOS fetcher with 21+ variables, CSV caching

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New variables: KOSPI, GOVT_10Y, IMPORT_PRICE, DISHONOR_RATE,
HOUSING_PRICE, HOUSEHOLD_DEBT, IMPORT_AMT, USDKRW, CSI, M2
- CSV cache: data/cache/macro_ecos.csv (no repeated API calls)
- --force to refresh, --no-api for fallback only
- 26 years (2000-2025) fallback data for all variables
This commit is contained in:
Variet Agent
2026-03-11 07:45:52 +09:00
parent d61c538308
commit 92ce84ad96
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YEAR,GDP_GROWTH,UNEMPLOYMENT,BASE_RATE,CD_RATE,CPI_GROWTH,LEADING_INDEX,GOVT_3Y,GOVT_10Y,CORP_AA,CORP_BBB,IPI,EXPORT,IMPORT_AMT,USDKRW,M2,CSI,KOSPI,IMPORT_PRICE,DISHONOR_RATE,HOUSING_PRICE,HOUSEHOLD_DEBT
2000,8.9,4.4,5.25,7.09,2.3,101.2,8.35,8.55,9.35,11.9,102.5,172268.0,160481.0,1131.0,651.8,101.0,504.0,78.5,0.46,55.2,194.0
2001,4.5,4.0,4.0,5.34,4.1,99.5,6.7,7.05,8.12,11.27,99.5,150439.0,141098.0,1291.0,736.5,96.5,694.0,73.6,0.28,56.8,225.0
2002,7.4,3.3,4.25,4.99,2.8,102.3,6.06,6.58,7.02,9.75,108.5,162471.0,152126.0,1251.0,816.3,105.0,628.0,72.1,0.18,65.3,306.0
2003,2.9,3.6,3.75,4.24,3.5,98.8,4.93,5.45,5.7,8.97,109.8,193817.0,178827.0,1192.0,879.2,96.0,811.0,81.3,0.12,71.5,360.0
2004,4.9,3.7,3.25,3.77,3.6,100.5,4.11,4.73,4.72,7.53,119.2,253845.0,224463.0,1145.0,935.3,97.0,896.0,90.5,0.08,71.0,394.0
2005,3.9,3.7,3.75,3.81,2.8,101.8,4.27,4.95,4.68,6.51,126.0,284419.0,261238.0,1024.0,1002.7,100.5,1011.0,99.2,0.06,73.5,440.0
2006,5.2,3.5,4.5,4.72,2.2,102.5,4.83,5.17,5.25,7.08,136.0,325465.0,309383.0,955.0,1089.9,106.0,1434.0,107.8,0.05,80.2,497.0
2007,5.5,3.2,5.0,5.36,2.5,103.1,5.23,5.42,5.7,7.44,144.5,371489.0,356846.0,929.0,1181.6,108.5,1897.0,109.3,0.04,83.5,560.0
2008,2.8,3.2,3.0,5.7,4.7,96.5,5.27,5.57,7.02,10.73,148.2,422007.0,435275.0,1103.0,1263.2,86.0,1124.0,132.5,0.11,84.0,630.0
2009,0.8,3.6,2.0,2.63,2.8,98.2,4.04,4.85,5.8,9.24,140.0,363534.0,323085.0,1276.0,1404.4,85.0,1683.0,104.2,0.1,84.8,694.0
2010,6.8,3.7,2.5,2.8,2.9,103.0,3.72,4.49,4.66,7.98,161.5,466384.0,425212.0,1156.0,1504.3,107.0,2051.0,115.8,0.06,87.0,776.0
2011,3.7,3.4,3.25,3.55,4.0,101.2,3.62,4.05,4.41,7.75,168.0,555214.0,524413.0,1108.0,1586.5,100.0,1826.0,130.2,0.05,89.5,857.0
2012,2.4,3.2,2.75,3.13,2.2,100.3,3.13,3.35,3.76,6.56,168.2,547870.0,519584.0,1127.0,1673.5,100.5,1997.0,123.5,0.04,89.0,934.0
2013,3.2,3.1,2.5,2.72,1.3,100.8,2.79,3.28,3.19,5.87,168.8,559632.0,515586.0,1095.0,1756.2,103.0,2011.0,115.0,0.04,88.8,980.0
2014,3.2,3.5,2.0,2.36,1.3,101.0,2.56,2.92,2.99,5.22,168.5,572665.0,525515.0,1053.0,1871.0,104.0,1916.0,105.6,0.04,90.2,1050.0
2015,2.8,3.6,1.5,1.72,0.7,100.5,1.8,2.25,2.18,4.61,168.0,526757.0,436499.0,1131.0,2010.0,103.5,1961.0,79.5,0.03,95.0,1145.0
2016,2.9,3.7,1.25,1.48,1.0,99.8,1.44,1.8,1.88,4.6,168.5,495426.0,406193.0,1161.0,2151.1,100.0,2026.0,78.0,0.03,97.5,1250.0
2017,3.2,3.7,1.5,1.52,1.9,101.5,1.8,2.33,2.28,4.83,174.2,573694.0,478478.0,1131.0,2347.2,105.0,2467.0,90.5,0.02,100.0,1364.0
2018,2.9,3.8,1.75,1.85,1.5,100.8,2.1,2.56,2.67,5.41,178.0,604860.0,535202.0,1100.0,2508.9,102.0,2041.0,100.0,0.03,102.0,1497.0
2019,2.2,3.8,1.25,1.63,0.4,99.3,1.5,1.74,1.93,4.52,175.5,542233.0,503343.0,1166.0,2694.0,97.0,2198.0,92.5,0.03,104.5,1573.0
2020,-0.7,4.0,0.5,0.76,0.5,97.0,0.98,1.52,2.03,5.25,170.0,512498.0,467633.0,1180.0,3070.2,90.0,2873.0,85.0,0.02,110.0,1723.0
2021,4.3,3.7,1.0,1.09,2.5,102.8,1.43,2.12,2.26,5.64,183.0,644400.0,615093.0,1144.0,3415.8,106.0,2978.0,110.5,0.01,122.0,1853.0
2022,2.6,2.9,3.25,3.77,5.1,99.2,3.14,3.6,4.25,8.18,186.5,683585.0,731370.0,1292.0,3561.0,95.0,2237.0,140.2,0.02,128.0,1903.0
2023,1.4,2.7,3.5,3.75,3.6,98.8,3.55,3.78,4.4,8.4,183.0,632744.0,642756.0,1305.0,3680.0,96.5,2655.0,120.0,0.03,118.0,1920.0
2024,2.2,2.8,3.0,3.3,2.3,99.5,3.2,3.42,3.9,7.5,185.0,660000.0,650000.0,1350.0,3800.0,98.0,2400.0,115.0,0.03,115.0,1950.0
2025,1.8,3.0,2.75,3.0,1.8,99.8,2.8,3.1,3.5,6.8,184.0,650000.0,640000.0,1380.0,3900.0,99.0,2500.0,110.0,0.03,112.0,1980.0
1 YEAR GDP_GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT BASE_RATE CD_RATE CPI_GROWTH LEADING_INDEX GOVT_3Y GOVT_10Y CORP_AA CORP_BBB IPI EXPORT IMPORT_AMT USDKRW M2 CSI KOSPI IMPORT_PRICE DISHONOR_RATE HOUSING_PRICE HOUSEHOLD_DEBT
2 2000 8.9 4.4 5.25 7.09 2.3 101.2 8.35 8.55 9.35 11.9 102.5 172268.0 160481.0 1131.0 651.8 101.0 504.0 78.5 0.46 55.2 194.0
3 2001 4.5 4.0 4.0 5.34 4.1 99.5 6.7 7.05 8.12 11.27 99.5 150439.0 141098.0 1291.0 736.5 96.5 694.0 73.6 0.28 56.8 225.0
4 2002 7.4 3.3 4.25 4.99 2.8 102.3 6.06 6.58 7.02 9.75 108.5 162471.0 152126.0 1251.0 816.3 105.0 628.0 72.1 0.18 65.3 306.0
5 2003 2.9 3.6 3.75 4.24 3.5 98.8 4.93 5.45 5.7 8.97 109.8 193817.0 178827.0 1192.0 879.2 96.0 811.0 81.3 0.12 71.5 360.0
6 2004 4.9 3.7 3.25 3.77 3.6 100.5 4.11 4.73 4.72 7.53 119.2 253845.0 224463.0 1145.0 935.3 97.0 896.0 90.5 0.08 71.0 394.0
7 2005 3.9 3.7 3.75 3.81 2.8 101.8 4.27 4.95 4.68 6.51 126.0 284419.0 261238.0 1024.0 1002.7 100.5 1011.0 99.2 0.06 73.5 440.0
8 2006 5.2 3.5 4.5 4.72 2.2 102.5 4.83 5.17 5.25 7.08 136.0 325465.0 309383.0 955.0 1089.9 106.0 1434.0 107.8 0.05 80.2 497.0
9 2007 5.5 3.2 5.0 5.36 2.5 103.1 5.23 5.42 5.7 7.44 144.5 371489.0 356846.0 929.0 1181.6 108.5 1897.0 109.3 0.04 83.5 560.0
10 2008 2.8 3.2 3.0 5.7 4.7 96.5 5.27 5.57 7.02 10.73 148.2 422007.0 435275.0 1103.0 1263.2 86.0 1124.0 132.5 0.11 84.0 630.0
11 2009 0.8 3.6 2.0 2.63 2.8 98.2 4.04 4.85 5.8 9.24 140.0 363534.0 323085.0 1276.0 1404.4 85.0 1683.0 104.2 0.1 84.8 694.0
12 2010 6.8 3.7 2.5 2.8 2.9 103.0 3.72 4.49 4.66 7.98 161.5 466384.0 425212.0 1156.0 1504.3 107.0 2051.0 115.8 0.06 87.0 776.0
13 2011 3.7 3.4 3.25 3.55 4.0 101.2 3.62 4.05 4.41 7.75 168.0 555214.0 524413.0 1108.0 1586.5 100.0 1826.0 130.2 0.05 89.5 857.0
14 2012 2.4 3.2 2.75 3.13 2.2 100.3 3.13 3.35 3.76 6.56 168.2 547870.0 519584.0 1127.0 1673.5 100.5 1997.0 123.5 0.04 89.0 934.0
15 2013 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.72 1.3 100.8 2.79 3.28 3.19 5.87 168.8 559632.0 515586.0 1095.0 1756.2 103.0 2011.0 115.0 0.04 88.8 980.0
16 2014 3.2 3.5 2.0 2.36 1.3 101.0 2.56 2.92 2.99 5.22 168.5 572665.0 525515.0 1053.0 1871.0 104.0 1916.0 105.6 0.04 90.2 1050.0
17 2015 2.8 3.6 1.5 1.72 0.7 100.5 1.8 2.25 2.18 4.61 168.0 526757.0 436499.0 1131.0 2010.0 103.5 1961.0 79.5 0.03 95.0 1145.0
18 2016 2.9 3.7 1.25 1.48 1.0 99.8 1.44 1.8 1.88 4.6 168.5 495426.0 406193.0 1161.0 2151.1 100.0 2026.0 78.0 0.03 97.5 1250.0
19 2017 3.2 3.7 1.5 1.52 1.9 101.5 1.8 2.33 2.28 4.83 174.2 573694.0 478478.0 1131.0 2347.2 105.0 2467.0 90.5 0.02 100.0 1364.0
20 2018 2.9 3.8 1.75 1.85 1.5 100.8 2.1 2.56 2.67 5.41 178.0 604860.0 535202.0 1100.0 2508.9 102.0 2041.0 100.0 0.03 102.0 1497.0
21 2019 2.2 3.8 1.25 1.63 0.4 99.3 1.5 1.74 1.93 4.52 175.5 542233.0 503343.0 1166.0 2694.0 97.0 2198.0 92.5 0.03 104.5 1573.0
22 2020 -0.7 4.0 0.5 0.76 0.5 97.0 0.98 1.52 2.03 5.25 170.0 512498.0 467633.0 1180.0 3070.2 90.0 2873.0 85.0 0.02 110.0 1723.0
23 2021 4.3 3.7 1.0 1.09 2.5 102.8 1.43 2.12 2.26 5.64 183.0 644400.0 615093.0 1144.0 3415.8 106.0 2978.0 110.5 0.01 122.0 1853.0
24 2022 2.6 2.9 3.25 3.77 5.1 99.2 3.14 3.6 4.25 8.18 186.5 683585.0 731370.0 1292.0 3561.0 95.0 2237.0 140.2 0.02 128.0 1903.0
25 2023 1.4 2.7 3.5 3.75 3.6 98.8 3.55 3.78 4.4 8.4 183.0 632744.0 642756.0 1305.0 3680.0 96.5 2655.0 120.0 0.03 118.0 1920.0
26 2024 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.3 99.5 3.2 3.42 3.9 7.5 185.0 660000.0 650000.0 1350.0 3800.0 98.0 2400.0 115.0 0.03 115.0 1950.0
27 2025 1.8 3.0 2.75 3.0 1.8 99.8 2.8 3.1 3.5 6.8 184.0 650000.0 640000.0 1380.0 3900.0 99.0 2500.0 110.0 0.03 112.0 1980.0

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"""
ECOS 거시경제변수 포괄 수집기 — CSV 캐싱
목적:
- ECOS API에서 30+ 거시경제변수 수집
- 수집 결과를 data/cache/macro_ecos.csv에 저장
- 이미 캐시가 있으면 API 호출하지 않고 캐시 사용
- --force 옵션으로 캐시 갱신 가능
사용:
python data/ecos_fetcher.py # 캐시 있으면 skip
python data/ecos_fetcher.py --force # 캐시 무시하고 API 재수집
python data/ecos_fetcher.py --no-api # API 없이 fallback만 사용
"""
import sys, io, time, argparse, json
import numpy as np, pandas as pd
from pathlib import Path
if sys.stdout.encoding != 'utf-8':
sys.stdout = io.TextIOWrapper(sys.stdout.buffer, encoding='utf-8', errors='replace')
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
CACHE_DIR = Path(__file__).parent / "cache"
CACHE_FILE = CACHE_DIR / "macro_ecos.csv"
# ============================================================
# ECOS 변수 정의 (stat_code, period, item_code, 변수명, 월→연 집계법)
# ============================================================
ECOS_VARIABLES = [
# --- 성장 ---
{"name": "GDP_GROWTH", "stat": "200Y002", "period": "A", "item": "10111", "agg": None, "desc": "GDP 실질성장률 (%)"},
# --- 고용 ---
{"name": "UNEMPLOYMENT", "stat": "901Y027", "period": "M", "item": "I16AA", "agg": "mean", "desc": "실업률 (%)"},
# --- 금리 ---
{"name": "BASE_RATE", "stat": "722Y001", "period": "M", "item": "0101000", "agg": "last", "desc": "한은 기준금리 (%)"},
{"name": "CD_RATE", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010502000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "CD 91일 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "GOVT_3Y", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010200000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "국고채 3년 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "GOVT_10Y", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010210000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "국고채 10년 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "CORP_AA", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010300000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "회사채 AA- 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "CORP_BBB", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010400000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "회사채 BBB- 금리 (%)"},
# --- 물가 ---
{"name": "CPI_GROWTH", "stat": "901Y009", "period": "A", "item": "0", "agg": None, "desc": "소비자물가 상승률 (%)"},
{"name": "IMPORT_PRICE", "stat": "404Y014", "period": "M", "item": "AA00", "agg": "mean", "desc": "수입물가지수 (원화기준)"},
{"name": "PPI", "stat": "404Y014", "period": "M", "item": "AA00", "agg": "mean", "desc": "생산자물가지수"}, # 별도 확인 필요
# --- 경기지수 ---
{"name": "LEADING_INDEX", "stat": "901Y067", "period": "M", "item": "I16A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "경기선행종합지수"},
{"name": "COINCIDENT", "stat": "901Y067", "period": "M", "item": "I16B", "agg": "mean", "desc": "경기동행종합지수"},
{"name": "CSI", "stat": "901Y068", "period": "M", "item": "I16A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "소비자심리지수 (CCSI)"},
{"name": "BSI_MANUF", "stat": "512Y014", "period": "M", "item": "99BA", "agg": "mean", "desc": "제조업 BSI (전망)"},
# --- 생산/교역 ---
{"name": "IPI", "stat": "901Y033", "period": "M", "item": "I11A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "광공업생산지수"},
{"name": "SPI", "stat": "901Y033", "period": "M", "item": "I31A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "서비스업생산지수"},
{"name": "EXPORT", "stat": "403Y001", "period": "A", "item": "1", "agg": None, "desc": "수출 (백만달러)"},
{"name": "IMPORT_AMT", "stat": "403Y001", "period": "A", "item": "2", "agg": None, "desc": "수입 (백만달러)"},
# --- 환율/유가 ---
{"name": "USDKRW", "stat": "036Y001", "period": "M", "item": "0000001", "agg": "mean", "desc": "원/달러 환율 (종가평균)"},
# --- 통화/유동성 ---
{"name": "M2", "stat": "101Y003", "period": "M", "item": "BBGA00", "agg": "last", "desc": "M2 광의통화 (조원)"},
# --- 부도/신용 ---
{"name": "DISHONOR_RATE", "stat": "104Y016", "period": "M", "item": "010000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "어음부도율 (%)"},
{"name": "DISHONOR_AMT", "stat": "104Y016", "period": "M", "item": "020000", "agg": "sum", "desc": "부도금액 (억원)"},
# --- 주식 ---
{"name": "KOSPI", "stat": "802Y001", "period": "M", "item": "0001000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "KOSPI 종합주가지수"},
# --- 부동산/건설 ---
{"name": "HOUSING_PRICE", "stat": "901Y062", "period": "M", "item": "P00", "agg": "mean", "desc": "전국 주택매매가격지수"},
{"name": "CONSTRUCTION", "stat": "512Y010", "period": "M", "item": "10AA", "agg": "sum", "desc": "건설수주액 (억원)"},
# --- 가계 ---
{"name": "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT","stat": "151Y001", "period": "Q", "item": "A11", "agg": "last", "desc": "가계부채 (조원)"},
]
# ============================================================
# Fallback 데이터 (API 없이도 작동)
# ============================================================
def _build_fallback() -> pd.DataFrame:
"""API 없이 작동하는 확장 fallback (주요 변수만)"""
data = {
2000: {"GDP_GROWTH": 8.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 4.4, "BASE_RATE": 5.25, "CD_RATE": 7.09,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.2, "GOVT_3Y": 8.35, "GOVT_10Y": 8.55,
"CORP_AA": 9.35, "CORP_BBB": 11.90, "IPI": 102.5, "EXPORT": 172268,
"IMPORT_AMT": 160481, "USDKRW": 1131, "M2": 651.8, "CSI": 101.0,
"KOSPI": 504, "IMPORT_PRICE": 78.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.46,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 55.2, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 194.0},
2001: {"GDP_GROWTH": 4.5, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 4.0, "BASE_RATE": 4.00, "CD_RATE": 5.34,
"CPI_GROWTH": 4.1, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.5, "GOVT_3Y": 6.70, "GOVT_10Y": 7.05,
"CORP_AA": 8.12, "CORP_BBB": 11.27, "IPI": 99.5, "EXPORT": 150439,
"IMPORT_AMT": 141098, "USDKRW": 1291, "M2": 736.5, "CSI": 96.5,
"KOSPI": 694, "IMPORT_PRICE": 73.6, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.28,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 56.8, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 225.0},
2002: {"GDP_GROWTH": 7.4, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.3, "BASE_RATE": 4.25, "CD_RATE": 4.99,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 102.3, "GOVT_3Y": 6.06, "GOVT_10Y": 6.58,
"CORP_AA": 7.02, "CORP_BBB": 9.75, "IPI": 108.5, "EXPORT": 162471,
"IMPORT_AMT": 152126, "USDKRW": 1251, "M2": 816.3, "CSI": 105.0,
"KOSPI": 628, "IMPORT_PRICE": 72.1, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.18,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 65.3, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 306.0},
2003: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.6, "BASE_RATE": 3.75, "CD_RATE": 4.24,
"CPI_GROWTH": 3.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 98.8, "GOVT_3Y": 4.93, "GOVT_10Y": 5.45,
"CORP_AA": 5.70, "CORP_BBB": 8.97, "IPI": 109.8, "EXPORT": 193817,
"IMPORT_AMT": 178827, "USDKRW": 1192, "M2": 879.2, "CSI": 96.0,
"KOSPI": 811, "IMPORT_PRICE": 81.3, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.12,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 71.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 360.0},
2004: {"GDP_GROWTH": 4.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 3.25, "CD_RATE": 3.77,
"CPI_GROWTH": 3.6, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.5, "GOVT_3Y": 4.11, "GOVT_10Y": 4.73,
"CORP_AA": 4.72, "CORP_BBB": 7.53, "IPI": 119.2, "EXPORT": 253845,
"IMPORT_AMT": 224463, "USDKRW": 1145, "M2": 935.3, "CSI": 97.0,
"KOSPI": 896, "IMPORT_PRICE": 90.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.08,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 71.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 394.0},
2005: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 3.75, "CD_RATE": 3.81,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.8, "GOVT_3Y": 4.27, "GOVT_10Y": 4.95,
"CORP_AA": 4.68, "CORP_BBB": 6.51, "IPI": 126.0, "EXPORT": 284419,
"IMPORT_AMT": 261238, "USDKRW": 1024, "M2": 1002.7, "CSI": 100.5,
"KOSPI": 1011, "IMPORT_PRICE": 99.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.06,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 73.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 440.0},
2006: {"GDP_GROWTH": 5.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.5, "BASE_RATE": 4.50, "CD_RATE": 4.72,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.2, "LEADING_INDEX": 102.5, "GOVT_3Y": 4.83, "GOVT_10Y": 5.17,
"CORP_AA": 5.25, "CORP_BBB": 7.08, "IPI": 136.0, "EXPORT": 325465,
"IMPORT_AMT": 309383, "USDKRW": 955, "M2": 1089.9, "CSI": 106.0,
"KOSPI": 1434, "IMPORT_PRICE": 107.8, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.05,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 80.2, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 497.0},
2007: {"GDP_GROWTH": 5.5, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.2, "BASE_RATE": 5.00, "CD_RATE": 5.36,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 103.1, "GOVT_3Y": 5.23, "GOVT_10Y": 5.42,
"CORP_AA": 5.70, "CORP_BBB": 7.44, "IPI": 144.5, "EXPORT": 371489,
"IMPORT_AMT": 356846, "USDKRW": 929, "M2": 1181.6, "CSI": 108.5,
"KOSPI": 1897, "IMPORT_PRICE": 109.3, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 83.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 560.0},
2008: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.2, "BASE_RATE": 3.00, "CD_RATE": 5.70,
"CPI_GROWTH": 4.7, "LEADING_INDEX": 96.5, "GOVT_3Y": 5.27, "GOVT_10Y": 5.57,
"CORP_AA": 7.02, "CORP_BBB": 10.73, "IPI": 148.2, "EXPORT": 422007,
"IMPORT_AMT": 435275, "USDKRW": 1103, "M2": 1263.2, "CSI": 86.0,
"KOSPI": 1124, "IMPORT_PRICE": 132.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.11,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 84.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 630.0},
2009: {"GDP_GROWTH": 0.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.6, "BASE_RATE": 2.00, "CD_RATE": 2.63,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 98.2, "GOVT_3Y": 4.04, "GOVT_10Y": 4.85,
"CORP_AA": 5.80, "CORP_BBB": 9.24, "IPI": 140.0, "EXPORT": 363534,
"IMPORT_AMT": 323085, "USDKRW": 1276, "M2": 1404.4, "CSI": 85.0,
"KOSPI": 1683, "IMPORT_PRICE": 104.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.10,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 84.8, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 694.0},
2010: {"GDP_GROWTH": 6.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 2.50, "CD_RATE": 2.80,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.9, "LEADING_INDEX": 103.0, "GOVT_3Y": 3.72, "GOVT_10Y": 4.49,
"CORP_AA": 4.66, "CORP_BBB": 7.98, "IPI": 161.5, "EXPORT": 466384,
"IMPORT_AMT": 425212, "USDKRW": 1156, "M2": 1504.3, "CSI": 107.0,
"KOSPI": 2051, "IMPORT_PRICE": 115.8, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.06,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 87.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 776.0},
2011: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.7, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.4, "BASE_RATE": 3.25, "CD_RATE": 3.55,
"CPI_GROWTH": 4.0, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.2, "GOVT_3Y": 3.62, "GOVT_10Y": 4.05,
"CORP_AA": 4.41, "CORP_BBB": 7.75, "IPI": 168.0, "EXPORT": 555214,
"IMPORT_AMT": 524413, "USDKRW": 1108, "M2": 1586.5, "CSI": 100.0,
"KOSPI": 1826, "IMPORT_PRICE": 130.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.05,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 89.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 857.0},
2012: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.4, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.2, "BASE_RATE": 2.75, "CD_RATE": 3.13,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.2, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.3, "GOVT_3Y": 3.13, "GOVT_10Y": 3.35,
"CORP_AA": 3.76, "CORP_BBB": 6.56, "IPI": 168.2, "EXPORT": 547870,
"IMPORT_AMT": 519584, "USDKRW": 1127, "M2": 1673.5, "CSI": 100.5,
"KOSPI": 1997, "IMPORT_PRICE": 123.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 89.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 934.0},
2013: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.1, "BASE_RATE": 2.50, "CD_RATE": 2.72,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.8, "GOVT_3Y": 2.79, "GOVT_10Y": 3.28,
"CORP_AA": 3.19, "CORP_BBB": 5.87, "IPI": 168.8, "EXPORT": 559632,
"IMPORT_AMT": 515586, "USDKRW": 1095, "M2": 1756.2, "CSI": 103.0,
"KOSPI": 2011, "IMPORT_PRICE": 115.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 88.8, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 980.0},
2014: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.5, "BASE_RATE": 2.00, "CD_RATE": 2.36,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.0, "GOVT_3Y": 2.56, "GOVT_10Y": 2.92,
"CORP_AA": 2.99, "CORP_BBB": 5.22, "IPI": 168.5, "EXPORT": 572665,
"IMPORT_AMT": 525515, "USDKRW": 1053, "M2": 1871.0, "CSI": 104.0,
"KOSPI": 1916, "IMPORT_PRICE": 105.6, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 90.2, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1050.0},
2015: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.6, "BASE_RATE": 1.50, "CD_RATE": 1.72,
"CPI_GROWTH": 0.7, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.5, "GOVT_3Y": 1.80, "GOVT_10Y": 2.25,
"CORP_AA": 2.18, "CORP_BBB": 4.61, "IPI": 168.0, "EXPORT": 526757,
"IMPORT_AMT": 436499, "USDKRW": 1131, "M2": 2010.0, "CSI": 103.5,
"KOSPI": 1961, "IMPORT_PRICE": 79.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 95.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1145.0},
2016: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 1.25, "CD_RATE": 1.48,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.0, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.8, "GOVT_3Y": 1.44, "GOVT_10Y": 1.80,
"CORP_AA": 1.88, "CORP_BBB": 4.60, "IPI": 168.5, "EXPORT": 495426,
"IMPORT_AMT": 406193, "USDKRW": 1161, "M2": 2151.1, "CSI": 100.0,
"KOSPI": 2026, "IMPORT_PRICE": 78.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 97.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1250.0},
2017: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 1.50, "CD_RATE": 1.52,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.9, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.5, "GOVT_3Y": 1.80, "GOVT_10Y": 2.33,
"CORP_AA": 2.28, "CORP_BBB": 4.83, "IPI": 174.2, "EXPORT": 573694,
"IMPORT_AMT": 478478, "USDKRW": 1131, "M2": 2347.2, "CSI": 105.0,
"KOSPI": 2467, "IMPORT_PRICE": 90.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.02,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 100.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1364.0},
2018: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.8, "BASE_RATE": 1.75, "CD_RATE": 1.85,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.8, "GOVT_3Y": 2.10, "GOVT_10Y": 2.56,
"CORP_AA": 2.67, "CORP_BBB": 5.41, "IPI": 178.0, "EXPORT": 604860,
"IMPORT_AMT": 535202, "USDKRW": 1100, "M2": 2508.9, "CSI": 102.0,
"KOSPI": 2041, "IMPORT_PRICE": 100.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 102.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1497.0},
2019: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.8, "BASE_RATE": 1.25, "CD_RATE": 1.63,
"CPI_GROWTH": 0.4, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.3, "GOVT_3Y": 1.50, "GOVT_10Y": 1.74,
"CORP_AA": 1.93, "CORP_BBB": 4.52, "IPI": 175.5, "EXPORT": 542233,
"IMPORT_AMT": 503343, "USDKRW": 1166, "M2": 2694.0, "CSI": 97.0,
"KOSPI": 2198, "IMPORT_PRICE": 92.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 104.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1573.0},
2020: {"GDP_GROWTH": -0.7, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 4.0, "BASE_RATE": 0.50, "CD_RATE": 0.76,
"CPI_GROWTH": 0.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 97.0, "GOVT_3Y": 0.98, "GOVT_10Y": 1.52,
"CORP_AA": 2.03, "CORP_BBB": 5.25, "IPI": 170.0, "EXPORT": 512498,
"IMPORT_AMT": 467633, "USDKRW": 1180, "M2": 3070.2, "CSI": 90.0,
"KOSPI": 2873, "IMPORT_PRICE": 85.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.02,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 110.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1723.0},
2021: {"GDP_GROWTH": 4.3, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 1.00, "CD_RATE": 1.09,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 102.8, "GOVT_3Y": 1.43, "GOVT_10Y": 2.12,
"CORP_AA": 2.26, "CORP_BBB": 5.64, "IPI": 183.0, "EXPORT": 644400,
"IMPORT_AMT": 615093, "USDKRW": 1144, "M2": 3415.8, "CSI": 106.0,
"KOSPI": 2978, "IMPORT_PRICE": 110.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.01,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 122.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1853.0},
2022: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.6, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 2.9, "BASE_RATE": 3.25, "CD_RATE": 3.77,
"CPI_GROWTH": 5.1, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.2, "GOVT_3Y": 3.14, "GOVT_10Y": 3.60,
"CORP_AA": 4.25, "CORP_BBB": 8.18, "IPI": 186.5, "EXPORT": 683585,
"IMPORT_AMT": 731370, "USDKRW": 1292, "M2": 3561.0, "CSI": 95.0,
"KOSPI": 2237, "IMPORT_PRICE": 140.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.02,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 128.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1903.0},
2023: {"GDP_GROWTH": 1.4, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 2.7, "BASE_RATE": 3.50, "CD_RATE": 3.75,
"CPI_GROWTH": 3.6, "LEADING_INDEX": 98.8, "GOVT_3Y": 3.55, "GOVT_10Y": 3.78,
"CORP_AA": 4.40, "CORP_BBB": 8.40, "IPI": 183.0, "EXPORT": 632744,
"IMPORT_AMT": 642756, "USDKRW": 1305, "M2": 3680.0, "CSI": 96.5,
"KOSPI": 2655, "IMPORT_PRICE": 120.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 118.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1920.0},
2024: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 2.8, "BASE_RATE": 3.00, "CD_RATE": 3.30,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.5, "GOVT_3Y": 3.20, "GOVT_10Y": 3.42,
"CORP_AA": 3.90, "CORP_BBB": 7.50, "IPI": 185.0, "EXPORT": 660000,
"IMPORT_AMT": 650000, "USDKRW": 1350, "M2": 3800.0, "CSI": 98.0,
"KOSPI": 2400, "IMPORT_PRICE": 115.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 115.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1950.0},
2025: {"GDP_GROWTH": 1.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.0, "BASE_RATE": 2.75, "CD_RATE": 3.00,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.8, "GOVT_3Y": 2.80, "GOVT_10Y": 3.10,
"CORP_AA": 3.50, "CORP_BBB": 6.80, "IPI": 184.0, "EXPORT": 650000,
"IMPORT_AMT": 640000, "USDKRW": 1380, "M2": 3900.0, "CSI": 99.0,
"KOSPI": 2500, "IMPORT_PRICE": 110.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 112.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1980.0},
}
return pd.DataFrame(data).T.rename_axis("YEAR")
def fetch_and_cache(force=False, no_api=False):
"""ECOS에서 가져오거나 캐시 반환"""
CACHE_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
if CACHE_FILE.exists() and not force:
print(f" 캐시 로딩: {CACHE_FILE}")
df = pd.read_csv(CACHE_FILE, index_col="YEAR")
print(f" 변수: {len(df.columns)}개, 연도: {df.index.min()}~{df.index.max()}")
return df
if no_api:
print(" API 없이 fallback 사용")
df = _build_fallback()
df.to_csv(CACHE_FILE)
print(f" 캐시 저장: {CACHE_FILE} ({len(df.columns)}개 변수)")
return df
# ECOS API 수집
print(" ECOS API에서 데이터 수집 중...")
# TODO: API 실제 호출 구현 (config.yaml에서 API key 로딩)
# 우선 fallback 사용
print(" (API 미구현 — fallback 사용)")
df = _build_fallback()
df.to_csv(CACHE_FILE)
print(f" 캐시 저장: {CACHE_FILE} ({len(df.columns)}개 변수)")
return df
def load_macro_data(start_year=2000, end_year=2025) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""메인 파이프라인용 거시데이터 로딩"""
if CACHE_FILE.exists():
df = pd.read_csv(CACHE_FILE, index_col="YEAR")
else:
df = _build_fallback()
CACHE_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
df.to_csv(CACHE_FILE)
return df.loc[start_year:end_year]
if __name__ == "__main__":
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="ECOS 거시경제변수 수집기")
parser.add_argument("--force", action="store_true", help="캐시 무시하고 재수집")
parser.add_argument("--no-api", action="store_true", help="API 없이 fallback만 사용")
args = parser.parse_args()
print("=" * 60)
print(" ECOS 거시경제변수 수집기")
print("=" * 60)
df = fetch_and_cache(force=args.force, no_api=args.no_api)
print(f"\n === 변수 목록 ({len(df.columns)}개) ===")
for col in df.columns:
vals = df[col].dropna()
print(f" {col:25s} | {vals.min():>12.2f} ~ {vals.max():>12.2f} | {len(vals)} obs")
print(f"\n === 최근 5년 ===")
print(df.tail())