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@@ -49,8 +49,8 @@ description: 모든 작업에 자동 적용되는 에이전트 행동 규칙.
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## Python Environment
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## Python Environment
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- **경로**: `C:\ProgramData\miniforge3\envs\quant`
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- **경로**: `C:\ProgramData\miniforge3\envs\lifetimePD`
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- **실행**: `C:\ProgramData\miniforge3\envs\quant\python.exe`
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- **실행**: `C:\ProgramData\miniforge3\envs\lifetimePD\python.exe`
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- 모든 Python 스크립트 실행 시 위 경로의 python을 사용합니다.
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- 모든 Python 스크립트 실행 시 위 경로의 python을 사용합니다.
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## PowerShell Notes
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## PowerShell Notes
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@@ -76,6 +76,6 @@ C:\ProgramData\miniforge3\envs\quant\python.exe main.py --estimate-rho
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## 미완료 사항 (다음 작업자 참고)
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## 미완료 사항 (다음 작업자 참고)
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1. **#290 실제 3사 전이행렬 CSV 변환** — `doc/`의 PDF에서 전이행렬을 추출하여 `data/raw/` CSV로 변환 필요. 현재는 builtin synthetic 데이터 사용 중
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1. **#293 거시 시나리오 고도화** — IMF WEO/KDI 전망치를 직접 입력하여 시나리오 정밀화
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2. **#293 거시 시나리오 고도화** — IMF WEO/KDI 전망치를 직접 입력하여 시나리오 정밀화
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2. **GDP 성장률 코드** — 현재 `902Y015/KOR` (국제 비교 통계) 사용. 한은 국민계정 직접 통계표코드 발견 시 교체 권장
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3. **GDP 성장률 코드** — 현재 `902Y015/KOR` (국제 비교 통계) 사용. 한은 국민계정 직접 통계표코드 발견 시 교체 권장
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3. **전처리 파이프라인 개선** — PD 플로어 적용, CCC B↔D 보간 방식 개선 (docs/methodology.md §2.0 참조)
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@@ -69,3 +69,26 @@
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- **원인**: 한국 경제 특수성(유가의존, 수출주도, 부동산 영향 등) 미반영
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- **원인**: 한국 경제 특수성(유가의존, 수출주도, 부동산 영향 등) 미반영
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- **해결**: 31개 변수로 확장 (KOSPI, OIL_PRICE, USDKRW, DISHONOR_RATE, HOUSING_PRICE, BSI_MANUF 등). `data/ecos_fetcher.py` + `data/cache/macro_ecos.csv` 캐싱 구조
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- **해결**: 31개 변수로 확장 (KOSPI, OIL_PRICE, USDKRW, DISHONOR_RATE, HOUSING_PRICE, BSI_MANUF 등). `data/ecos_fetcher.py` + `data/cache/macro_ecos.csv` 캐싱 구조
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- **주의**: fallback 데이터는 대략적 수치. 정밀 분석 시 ECOS API 실제 호출 필요 (`--force` 옵션)
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- **주의**: fallback 데이터는 대략적 수치. 정밀 분석 시 ECOS API 실제 호출 필요 (`--force` 옵션)
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### [2026-03-11] Windows Python — 소스 코드 특수문자 SyntaxError
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- **증상**: 파이썬 코드 내 문자열(예: docstring)에 `×` (U+00D7), `→` (U+2192) 등 특수문자나 한글 이외의 유니코드가 포함될 때, Windows CP949 환경에서 `SyntaxError: invalid character` 또는 `unterminated triple-quoted string literal` 로 파싱 오류가 발생함.
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- **원인**: Windows Python 3.12 런타임이 파일 맨 앞 `# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-` 이나 `-X utf8` 런타임 플래그도 소스 구문 분석 레벨에서 완벽하게 해석해내지 못하는 Windows 인코딩 고질병 문제 발생.
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- **해결**: 소스 코드 내에선 (특히 docstring 등 Python 인터프리터가 읽을 영역에서는) `×` 대신 `x` 또는 `by`를 사용하고, `→` 대신 `->` 로 ASCII 코드로 치환하여 작성함 (정규식 치환 등 활용). 한글 자체는 정상적으로 파싱됨.
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- **주의**: 모델링, 모듈 코드 작성 시 문자열이나 주석 내에 특수 유니코드 기호(×, →, —, §)를 직접 삽입하지 말고 안전한 ASCII 문자로 대체하여 코딩할 것.
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### [2026-03-11] ADF 단위근 검정 — autolag='AIC' 소표본 과적합
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- **증상**: Zt ADF 검정이 `autolag='AIC'`에서 p=0.40 (FAIL), `autolag='BIC'`에서 p=0.0000 (PASS)
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- **원인**: AIC는 소표본(N<50)에서 lag를 과다 선택 (N=26에서 lag=8 선택 -> 유효관측치=17 -> 검정력 상실). Hamilton (1994, Ch.17) 참조
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- **해결**: `validation/statistical_tests.py`에서 `adfuller(series, autolag="AIC")` -> `adfuller(series, autolag="BIC")`, BIC는 보수적 lag 선택으로 소표본 적합 (Schwarz 1978)
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- **주의**: N<50 시계열 ADF 검정에서 항상 `autolag='BIC'` 사용. AIC는 대표본(N>100)에서만 신뢰할 것
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### [2026-03-11] KAP 채권 YTM PD Floor — 하드코딩 vs 실계산 혼동
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- **증상**: `DEFAULT_PD_FLOORS` 하드코딩 값(BBB=20bp)과 KAP YTM 기반 실계산값(BBB=93bp)의 차이가 큼
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- **원인**: `pd_floor.py`에 `build_complete_pd_floor_table()` 함수가 존재하나 사용되지 않고, `get_default_pd_floors()`만 호출
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- **해결**: `main.py`와 `generate_report.py` 모두 `build_complete_pd_floor_table()` 호출로 변경. `ytm_fetcher.py` fallback 데이터(2025-12-31)로 오프라인에서도 작동
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### [2026-03-27] ECOS 월별 데이터 역산 시 연간 데이터와의 오차
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- **증상**: KOSPI 평균이나 교역조건지수를 월별로 12분할 평균 낸 결과가 ECOS 연간 데이터(A) 고시와 소수점 이하 단위에서 완전 일치하지 않음.
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- **원인**: KOSPI 일평균의 영업일 가중치, 교역조건지수의 거래물량 가중치가 연간 산출 시 각 월의 편차를 발생시키기 때문.
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- **해결**: 대상이 통계 모형 입력 변수(거시 시나리오 모델링)라면 12개월 단순 평균의 오차율(약 0.05%)이 수치에 영향을 거의 미치지 않으므로, 복잡도 완화를 위해 단순 Aggregate를 허용하는 것으로 아키텍처 합의. (단, WTI 단순 평균, KOSPI 종가 등은 완벽 모사가 가능)
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- **주의**: 소수점 2째 자리 검증/심사표 등 완벽한 모사가 불가피할 경우, M/A 주기를 나눠 API를 2번씩 별도 Fetch해야 함.
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@@ -125,4 +125,4 @@ python .agents\workflows\helpers\vikunja_helper.py list todo
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- `curl` → PowerShell에서 `Invoke-WebRequest`의 별칭. **반드시 `curl.exe`** 사용
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- `curl` → PowerShell에서 `Invoke-WebRequest`의 별칭. **반드시 `curl.exe`** 사용
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- `npm` → PowerShell에서 실행 정책 문제 시 `cmd /c npm` 사용
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- `npm` → PowerShell에서 실행 정책 문제 시 `cmd /c npm` 사용
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- JSON 파이프 파싱 시 PowerShell 이스케이핑 문제 → `.py` 스크립트 파일로 만들어 실행 권장
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- JSON 파이프 파싱 시 PowerShell 이스케이핑 문제 → `.py` 스크립트 파일로 만들어 실행 권장
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25
config.yaml
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config.yaml
@@ -18,29 +18,44 @@ ecos:
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# 전이행렬 데이터 소스
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# 전이행렬 데이터 소스
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data:
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data:
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transition_source: "real" # "real" (3사 실제) | "builtin" (내장 샘플)
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transition_source: "real" # "real" (3사 실제) | "builtin" (내장 샘플)
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transition_dir: null # null이면 기본 data/real/
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transition_dir: null # null이면 기본 data/real_v2/
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# 모형 파라미터
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# 모형 파라미터
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model:
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model:
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# 자산상관계수 (Basel IRB 기준 0.12~0.24, 기업 평균 ~0.20)
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# 자산상관계수 (Basel IRB 기준 0.12~0.24, 기업 평균 ~0.20)
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rho: 0.20
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rho: 0.20
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# 신용등급 체계 (한국 3사 공통)
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# 신용등급 체계 (한국 3사 공통)
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rating_grades: ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "CCC", "D"]
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rating_grades: ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "D"] # 7x7 (CCC제외, Zt추정용)
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# 거시 회귀모형 설정
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macro_method: "ar1_macro" # "ar1_macro" | "stepwise_aic"
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macro_vars: ["HOUSING_PRICE", "CREDIT_SPREAD_LAG1", "CURRENT_ACCOUNT_R"]
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# 시나리오 설정
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# 시나리오 설정
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scenarios:
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scenarios:
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upside:
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upside:
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name: "호황 (Upside)"
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name: "호황 (Upside)"
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z_multiplier: 1.0 # Zt = μ + 1.0σ
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z_multiplier: 1.0 # Z-직접 fallback용
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weight: 0.20 # ECB 방식 확률가중치
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weight: 0.20
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macro_shocks: # AR(1) 충격 (σ 배수)
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HOUSING_PRICE: 1.0 # 주택가격 1σ 상승 (호재)
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CREDIT_SPREAD_LAG1: -1.0 # 신용스프레드 1σ 하락 (호재)
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CURRENT_ACCOUNT_R: 1.0 # 경상수지변화율 1σ 상승
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base:
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base:
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name: "중립 (Base)"
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name: "중립 (Base)"
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z_multiplier: 0.0
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z_multiplier: 0.0
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weight: 0.50
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weight: 0.50
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macro_shocks:
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HOUSING_PRICE: 0.0
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CREDIT_SPREAD_LAG1: 0.0
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CURRENT_ACCOUNT_R: 0.0
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downside:
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downside:
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name: "불황 (Downside)"
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name: "불황 (Downside)"
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z_multiplier: -1.5 # Fed DFAST 역사적 하위 5%
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z_multiplier: -1.5
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weight: 0.30
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weight: 0.30
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macro_shocks:
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HOUSING_PRICE: -1.5 # 주택가격 1.5σ 하락 (악재)
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CREDIT_SPREAD_LAG1: 1.5 # 신용스프레드 1.5σ 상승 (악재)
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CURRENT_ACCOUNT_R: -1.5 # 경상수지변화율 1.5σ 하락
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# 50년 수렴 메커니즘
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# 50년 수렴 메커니즘
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convergence:
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convergence:
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54
data/cache/macro_ecos.csv
vendored
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data/cache/macro_ecos.csv
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YEAR,GDP_GROWTH,UNEMPLOYMENT,BASE_RATE,CD_RATE,CPI_GROWTH,LEADING_INDEX,GOVT_3Y,GOVT_10Y,CORP_AA,CORP_BBB,IPI,EXPORT,IMPORT_AMT,USDKRW,M2,CSI,KOSPI,IMPORT_PRICE,DISHONOR_RATE,HOUSING_PRICE,HOUSEHOLD_DEBT,FACILITY_INVEST,RETAIL_SALES,CURRENT_ACCOUNT,EMPLOYED,EMPLOYMENT_RATE,OIL_PRICE,COINCIDENT,BSI_MANUF,CONSTRUCTION_DONE,SPI
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YEAR,GDP_GROWTH,UNEMPLOYMENT,BASE_RATE,CD_RATE,CPI_GROWTH,LEADING_INDEX,GOVT_3Y,GOVT_10Y,CORP_AA,CORP_BBB,IPI,EXPORT,IMPORT_AMT,USDKRW,M2,CSI,KOSPI,IMPORT_PRICE,DISHONOR_RATE,HOUSING_PRICE,HOUSEHOLD_DEBT,FACILITY_INVEST,RETAIL_SALES,CURRENT_ACCOUNT,EMPLOYED,EMPLOYMENT_RATE,OIL_PRICE,COINCIDENT,BSI_MANUF,CONSTRUCTION_DONE,SPI,CONSTR_INVEST_GR,GFCF_GROWTH,SAVING_RATE,INVEST_RATE,TRADE_GNI,MANUF_CAPACITY
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2000,8.9,4.4,5.25,7.09,2.3,101.2,8.35,8.55,9.35,11.9,102.5,172268.0,160481.0,1131.0,651.8,101.0,504.0,78.5,0.46,55.2,194.0,62.5,72.0,123.5,2115.0,58.5,26.2,99.8,90.0,56.3,58.0
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2000,8.9,4.4,5.25,7.09,2.3,101.2,8.35,8.55,9.35,11.9,102.5,172268.0,160481.0,1131.0,651.8,101.0,504.0,78.5,0.46,55.2,194.0,62.5,72.0,123.5,2115.0,58.5,26.2,99.8,90.0,56.3,58.0,-1.4,11.4,33.7,31.0,72.5,109.5
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2001,4.5,4.0,4.0,5.34,4.1,99.5,6.7,7.05,8.12,11.27,99.5,150439.0,141098.0,1291.0,736.5,96.5,694.0,73.6,0.28,56.8,225.0,58.5,73.5,80.3,2118.0,59.0,22.8,98.0,82.0,53.8,60.2
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2001,4.5,4.0,4.0,5.34,4.1,99.5,6.7,7.05,8.12,11.27,99.5,150439.0,141098.0,1291.0,736.5,96.5,694.0,73.6,0.28,56.8,225.0,58.5,73.5,80.3,2118.0,59.0,22.8,98.0,82.0,53.8,60.2,5.6,0.6,31.7,29.3,66.3,105.8
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2002,7.4,3.3,4.25,4.99,2.8,102.3,6.06,6.58,7.02,9.75,108.5,162471.0,152126.0,1251.0,816.3,105.0,628.0,72.1,0.18,65.3,306.0,63.2,76.0,53.9,2217.0,60.0,23.7,101.5,92.0,55.2,63.5
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2002,7.4,3.3,4.25,4.99,2.8,102.3,6.06,6.58,7.02,9.75,108.5,162471.0,152126.0,1251.0,816.3,105.0,628.0,72.1,0.18,65.3,306.0,63.2,76.0,53.9,2217.0,60.0,23.7,101.5,92.0,55.2,63.5,6.5,6.7,31.3,29.1,62.4,110.5
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2003,2.9,3.6,3.75,4.24,3.5,98.8,4.93,5.45,5.7,8.97,109.8,193817.0,178827.0,1192.0,879.2,96.0,811.0,81.3,0.12,71.5,360.0,60.5,74.0,119.5,2212.0,59.5,26.8,99.2,85.0,58.0,64.8
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2003,2.9,3.6,3.75,4.24,3.5,98.8,4.93,5.45,5.7,8.97,109.8,193817.0,178827.0,1192.0,879.2,96.0,811.0,81.3,0.12,71.5,360.0,60.5,74.0,119.5,2212.0,59.5,26.8,99.2,85.0,58.0,64.8,10.0,4.0,32.6,30.0,65.0,108.2
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2004,4.9,3.7,3.25,3.77,3.6,100.5,4.11,4.73,4.72,7.53,119.2,253845.0,224463.0,1145.0,935.3,97.0,896.0,90.5,0.08,71.0,394.0,66.5,74.5,284.2,2272.0,59.8,33.5,100.8,88.0,63.5,66.0
|
2004,4.9,3.7,3.25,3.77,3.6,100.5,4.11,4.73,4.72,7.53,119.2,253845.0,224463.0,1145.0,935.3,97.0,896.0,90.5,0.08,71.0,394.0,66.5,74.5,284.2,2272.0,59.8,33.5,100.8,88.0,63.5,66.0,1.8,2.1,34.8,30.3,73.5,113.8
|
||||||
2005,3.9,3.7,3.75,3.81,2.8,101.8,4.27,4.95,4.68,6.51,126.0,284419.0,261238.0,1024.0,1002.7,100.5,1011.0,99.2,0.06,73.5,440.0,68.0,76.5,149.8,2297.0,60.3,49.3,101.2,92.0,66.0,68.5
|
2005,3.9,3.7,3.75,3.81,2.8,101.8,4.27,4.95,4.68,6.51,126.0,284419.0,261238.0,1024.0,1002.7,100.5,1011.0,99.2,0.06,73.5,440.0,68.0,76.5,149.8,2297.0,60.3,49.3,101.2,92.0,66.0,68.5,-0.4,1.9,33.4,29.7,72.5,114.5
|
||||||
2006,5.2,3.5,4.5,4.72,2.2,102.5,4.83,5.17,5.25,7.08,136.0,325465.0,309383.0,955.0,1089.9,106.0,1434.0,107.8,0.05,80.2,497.0,73.5,78.5,53.9,2334.0,60.9,61.5,102.8,95.0,69.5,71.2
|
2006,5.2,3.5,4.5,4.72,2.2,102.5,4.83,5.17,5.25,7.08,136.0,325465.0,309383.0,955.0,1089.9,106.0,1434.0,107.8,0.05,80.2,497.0,73.5,78.5,53.9,2334.0,60.9,61.5,102.8,95.0,69.5,71.2,0.5,3.4,32.5,29.6,73.2,115.8
|
||||||
2007,5.5,3.2,5.0,5.36,2.5,103.1,5.23,5.42,5.7,7.44,144.5,371489.0,356846.0,929.0,1181.6,108.5,1897.0,109.3,0.04,83.5,560.0,78.5,80.0,59.5,2371.0,61.3,68.4,103.5,97.0,72.8,74.0
|
2007,5.5,3.2,5.0,5.36,2.5,103.1,5.23,5.42,5.7,7.44,144.5,371489.0,356846.0,929.0,1181.6,108.5,1897.0,109.3,0.04,83.5,560.0,78.5,80.0,59.5,2371.0,61.3,68.4,103.5,97.0,72.8,74.0,1.4,4.2,32.4,29.4,77.8,115.2
|
||||||
2008,2.8,3.2,3.0,5.7,4.7,96.5,5.27,5.57,7.02,10.73,148.2,422007.0,435275.0,1103.0,1263.2,86.0,1124.0,132.5,0.11,84.0,630.0,76.0,79.0,-57.8,2385.0,61.5,94.3,98.5,72.0,74.5,75.5
|
2008,2.8,3.2,3.0,5.7,4.7,96.5,5.27,5.57,7.02,10.73,148.2,422007.0,435275.0,1103.0,1263.2,86.0,1124.0,132.5,0.11,84.0,630.0,76.0,79.0,-57.8,2385.0,61.5,94.3,98.5,72.0,74.5,75.5,-2.8,-1.9,31.5,31.2,96.5,112.8
|
||||||
2009,0.8,3.6,2.0,2.63,2.8,98.2,4.04,4.85,5.8,9.24,140.0,363534.0,323085.0,1276.0,1404.4,85.0,1683.0,104.2,0.1,84.8,694.0,60.5,77.5,328.1,2355.0,60.1,61.8,96.5,68.0,68.2,76.0
|
2009,0.8,3.6,2.0,2.63,2.8,98.2,4.04,4.85,5.8,9.24,140.0,363534.0,323085.0,1276.0,1404.4,85.0,1683.0,104.2,0.1,84.8,694.0,60.5,77.5,328.1,2355.0,60.1,61.8,96.5,68.0,68.2,76.0,0.2,-1.0,31.4,26.3,82.0,102.5
|
||||||
2010,6.8,3.7,2.5,2.8,2.9,103.0,3.72,4.49,4.66,7.98,161.5,466384.0,425212.0,1156.0,1504.3,107.0,2051.0,115.8,0.06,87.0,776.0,80.5,80.5,282.1,2397.0,60.4,78.1,103.0,95.0,72.0,78.5
|
2010,6.8,3.7,2.5,2.8,2.9,103.0,3.72,4.49,4.66,7.98,161.5,466384.0,425212.0,1156.0,1504.3,107.0,2051.0,115.8,0.06,87.0,776.0,80.5,80.5,282.1,2397.0,60.4,78.1,103.0,95.0,72.0,78.5,-1.4,5.8,33.5,29.5,87.9,113.0
|
||||||
2011,3.7,3.4,3.25,3.55,4.0,101.2,3.62,4.05,4.41,7.75,168.0,555214.0,524413.0,1108.0,1586.5,100.0,1826.0,130.2,0.05,89.5,857.0,82.0,82.0,184.1,2424.0,60.7,106.0,102.5,90.0,73.5,80.0
|
2011,3.7,3.4,3.25,3.55,4.0,101.2,3.62,4.05,4.41,7.75,168.0,555214.0,524413.0,1108.0,1586.5,100.0,1826.0,130.2,0.05,89.5,857.0,82.0,82.0,184.1,2424.0,60.7,106.0,102.5,90.0,73.5,80.0,-4.9,0.8,34.0,29.4,96.7,112.5
|
||||||
2012,2.4,3.2,2.75,3.13,2.2,100.3,3.13,3.35,3.76,6.56,168.2,547870.0,519584.0,1127.0,1673.5,100.5,1997.0,123.5,0.04,89.0,934.0,79.0,83.5,508.4,2468.0,61.3,109.1,100.5,85.0,72.0,82.5
|
2012,2.4,3.2,2.75,3.13,2.2,100.3,3.13,3.35,3.76,6.56,168.2,547870.0,519584.0,1127.0,1673.5,100.5,1997.0,123.5,0.04,89.0,934.0,79.0,83.5,508.4,2468.0,61.3,109.1,100.5,85.0,72.0,82.5,-3.2,-0.5,33.8,28.4,96.8,110.2
|
||||||
2013,3.2,3.1,2.5,2.72,1.3,100.8,2.79,3.28,3.19,5.87,168.8,559632.0,515586.0,1095.0,1756.2,103.0,2011.0,115.0,0.04,88.8,980.0,77.5,85.0,812.1,2503.0,61.6,105.5,101.0,88.0,71.5,84.0
|
2013,3.2,3.1,2.5,2.72,1.3,100.8,2.79,3.28,3.19,5.87,168.8,559632.0,515586.0,1095.0,1756.2,103.0,2011.0,115.0,0.04,88.8,980.0,77.5,85.0,812.1,2503.0,61.6,105.5,101.0,88.0,71.5,84.0,5.4,3.3,34.0,28.7,93.2,108.0
|
||||||
2014,3.2,3.5,2.0,2.36,1.3,101.0,2.56,2.92,2.99,5.22,168.5,572665.0,525515.0,1053.0,1871.0,104.0,1916.0,105.6,0.04,90.2,1050.0,81.0,86.5,843.5,2546.0,62.4,96.7,101.5,90.0,73.8,86.0
|
2014,3.2,3.5,2.0,2.36,1.3,101.0,2.56,2.92,2.99,5.22,168.5,572665.0,525515.0,1053.0,1871.0,104.0,1916.0,105.6,0.04,90.2,1050.0,81.0,86.5,843.5,2546.0,62.4,96.7,101.5,90.0,73.8,86.0,1.1,3.1,34.5,29.0,87.6,108.8
|
||||||
2015,2.8,3.6,1.5,1.72,0.7,100.5,1.8,2.25,2.18,4.61,168.0,526757.0,436499.0,1131.0,2010.0,103.5,1961.0,79.5,0.03,95.0,1145.0,84.5,88.0,1059.4,2567.0,62.6,51.2,101.0,86.0,77.5,88.5
|
2015,2.8,3.6,1.5,1.72,0.7,100.5,1.8,2.25,2.18,4.61,168.0,526757.0,436499.0,1131.0,2010.0,103.5,1961.0,79.5,0.03,95.0,1145.0,84.5,88.0,1059.4,2567.0,62.6,51.2,101.0,86.0,77.5,88.5,9.1,5.1,36.0,28.8,79.8,107.2
|
||||||
2016,2.9,3.7,1.25,1.48,1.0,99.8,1.44,1.8,1.88,4.6,168.5,495426.0,406193.0,1161.0,2151.1,100.0,2026.0,78.0,0.03,97.5,1250.0,82.0,89.5,992.4,2597.0,63.0,41.3,100.2,85.0,89.5,90.0
|
2016,2.9,3.7,1.25,1.48,1.0,99.8,1.44,1.8,1.88,4.6,168.5,495426.0,406193.0,1161.0,2151.1,100.0,2026.0,78.0,0.03,97.5,1250.0,82.0,89.5,992.4,2597.0,63.0,41.3,100.2,85.0,89.5,90.0,10.3,5.6,36.4,29.2,74.5,106.0
|
||||||
2017,3.2,3.7,1.5,1.52,1.9,101.5,1.8,2.33,2.28,4.83,174.2,573694.0,478478.0,1131.0,2347.2,105.0,2467.0,90.5,0.02,100.0,1364.0,92.0,92.0,752.6,2620.0,63.2,53.1,101.8,92.0,90.0,92.5
|
2017,3.2,3.7,1.5,1.52,1.9,101.5,1.8,2.33,2.28,4.83,174.2,573694.0,478478.0,1131.0,2347.2,105.0,2467.0,90.5,0.02,100.0,1364.0,92.0,92.0,752.6,2620.0,63.2,53.1,101.8,92.0,90.0,92.5,7.3,9.8,36.6,31.1,77.3,107.5
|
||||||
2018,2.9,3.8,1.75,1.85,1.5,100.8,2.1,2.56,2.67,5.41,178.0,604860.0,535202.0,1100.0,2508.9,102.0,2041.0,100.0,0.03,102.0,1497.0,94.5,94.0,774.7,2633.0,63.1,69.5,101.5,88.0,85.5,94.5
|
2018,2.9,3.8,1.75,1.85,1.5,100.8,2.1,2.56,2.67,5.41,178.0,604860.0,535202.0,1100.0,2508.9,102.0,2041.0,100.0,0.03,102.0,1497.0,94.5,94.0,774.7,2633.0,63.1,69.5,101.5,88.0,85.5,94.5,-4.6,-2.4,35.9,30.3,77.3,107.0
|
||||||
2019,2.2,3.8,1.25,1.63,0.4,99.3,1.5,1.74,1.93,4.52,175.5,542233.0,503343.0,1166.0,2694.0,97.0,2198.0,92.5,0.03,104.5,1573.0,89.0,96.5,597.0,2660.0,63.5,63.4,100.0,82.0,82.0,97.0
|
2019,2.2,3.8,1.25,1.63,0.4,99.3,1.5,1.74,1.93,4.52,175.5,542233.0,503343.0,1166.0,2694.0,97.0,2198.0,92.5,0.03,104.5,1573.0,89.0,96.5,597.0,2660.0,63.5,63.4,100.0,82.0,82.0,97.0,-3.1,-2.1,34.6,30.5,72.1,102.8
|
||||||
2020,-0.7,4.0,0.5,0.76,0.5,97.0,0.98,1.52,2.03,5.25,170.0,512498.0,467633.0,1180.0,3070.2,90.0,2873.0,85.0,0.02,110.0,1723.0,100.0,100.0,752.8,2630.0,62.5,42.3,97.5,76.0,79.0,100.0
|
2020,-0.7,4.0,0.5,0.76,0.5,97.0,0.98,1.52,2.03,5.25,170.0,512498.0,467633.0,1180.0,3070.2,90.0,2873.0,85.0,0.02,110.0,1723.0,100.0,100.0,752.8,2630.0,62.5,42.3,97.5,76.0,79.0,100.0,-0.1,2.6,36.3,31.3,65.8,100.0
|
||||||
2021,4.3,3.7,1.0,1.09,2.5,102.8,1.43,2.12,2.26,5.64,183.0,644400.0,615093.0,1144.0,3415.8,106.0,2978.0,110.5,0.01,122.0,1853.0,108.5,105.0,883.0,2672.0,63.8,69.3,103.0,96.0,77.5,104.5
|
2021,4.3,3.7,1.0,1.09,2.5,102.8,1.43,2.12,2.26,5.64,183.0,644400.0,615093.0,1144.0,3415.8,106.0,2978.0,110.5,0.01,122.0,1853.0,108.5,105.0,883.0,2672.0,63.8,69.3,103.0,96.0,77.5,104.5,-1.5,3.1,35.8,31.6,74.5,105.2
|
||||||
2022,2.6,2.9,3.25,3.77,5.1,99.2,3.14,3.6,4.25,8.18,186.5,683585.0,731370.0,1292.0,3561.0,95.0,2237.0,140.2,0.02,128.0,1903.0,105.0,107.5,258.3,2726.0,64.5,97.0,100.5,85.0,76.0,108.0
|
2022,2.6,2.9,3.25,3.77,5.1,99.2,3.14,3.6,4.25,8.18,186.5,683585.0,731370.0,1292.0,3561.0,95.0,2237.0,140.2,0.02,128.0,1903.0,105.0,107.5,258.3,2726.0,64.5,97.0,100.5,85.0,76.0,108.0,-3.5,-0.7,34.5,31.8,85.2,104.5
|
||||||
2023,1.4,2.7,3.5,3.75,3.6,98.8,3.55,3.78,4.4,8.4,183.0,632744.0,642756.0,1305.0,3680.0,96.5,2655.0,120.0,0.03,118.0,1920.0,102.0,106.0,355.2,2750.0,65.0,82.5,99.2,80.0,72.0,109.5
|
2023,1.4,2.7,3.5,3.75,3.6,98.8,3.55,3.78,4.4,8.4,183.0,632744.0,642756.0,1305.0,3680.0,96.5,2655.0,120.0,0.03,118.0,1920.0,102.0,106.0,355.2,2750.0,65.0,82.5,99.2,80.0,72.0,109.5,-0.5,1.5,34.0,30.8,80.5,101.0
|
||||||
2024,2.2,2.8,3.0,3.3,2.3,99.5,3.2,3.42,3.9,7.5,185.0,660000.0,650000.0,1350.0,3800.0,98.0,2400.0,115.0,0.03,115.0,1950.0,103.5,105.5,380.0,2760.0,65.2,80.0,99.5,82.0,68.0,110.0
|
2024,2.2,2.8,3.0,3.3,2.3,99.5,3.2,3.42,3.9,7.5,185.0,660000.0,650000.0,1350.0,3800.0,98.0,2400.0,115.0,0.03,115.0,1950.0,103.5,105.5,380.0,2760.0,65.2,80.0,99.5,82.0,68.0,110.0,-3.3,0.8,33.5,30.0,82.0,101.5
|
||||||
2025,1.8,3.0,2.75,3.0,1.8,99.8,2.8,3.1,3.5,6.8,184.0,650000.0,640000.0,1380.0,3900.0,99.0,2500.0,110.0,0.03,112.0,1980.0,104.0,106.0,350.0,2770.0,65.5,75.0,100.0,84.0,65.0,111.0
|
2025,1.8,3.0,2.75,3.0,1.8,99.8,2.8,3.1,3.5,6.8,184.0,650000.0,640000.0,1380.0,3900.0,99.0,2500.0,110.0,0.03,112.0,1980.0,104.0,106.0,350.0,2770.0,65.5,75.0,100.0,84.0,65.0,111.0,-2.0,1.0,33.0,29.5,81.0,101.0
|
||||||
|
|||||||
|
197
data/ccc_interpolator.py
Normal file
197
data/ccc_interpolator.py
Normal file
@@ -0,0 +1,197 @@
|
|||||||
|
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
CCC interpolation module: 7x7 -> 8x8
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
B and D rows/columns are used to create a synthetic CCC grade
|
||||||
|
via geometric mean (log-interpolation) of transition probabilities.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This module runs AFTER Zt estimation (which uses 7x7 matrices)
|
||||||
|
to produce the final 8x8 matrices for Lifetime PD projection.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Usage:
|
||||||
|
from data.ccc_interpolator import expand_to_8x8
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8 = expand_to_8x8(tm_7x7)
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
from typing import Optional
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 7x7 index: AAA=0, AA=1, A=2, BBB=3, BB=4, B=5, D=6
|
||||||
|
# 8x8 index: AAA=0, AA=1, A=2, BBB=3, BB=4, B=5, CCC=6, D=7
|
||||||
|
GRADES_7 = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "D"]
|
||||||
|
GRADES_8 = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "CCC", "D"]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def expand_to_8x8(
|
||||||
|
tm_7x7: np.ndarray,
|
||||||
|
alpha: float = 0.5,
|
||||||
|
method: str = "geometric"
|
||||||
|
) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
7x7 transition matrix -> 8x8 with CCC interpolated between B and D.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The CCC row is interpolated from B row and D row.
|
||||||
|
The CCC column is created by splitting the D column for grades above CCC.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
tm_7x7 : np.ndarray
|
||||||
|
7x7 (AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, D) probability matrix
|
||||||
|
alpha : float
|
||||||
|
Interpolation weight (0.5 = geometric midpoint between B and D)
|
||||||
|
method : str
|
||||||
|
'geometric': log-interpolation (default)
|
||||||
|
'linear': linear interpolation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
np.ndarray
|
||||||
|
8x8 (AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, D) probability matrix
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
assert tm_7x7.shape == (7, 7), f"Expected (7,7), got {tm_7x7.shape}"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8 = np.zeros((8, 8))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- Step 1: Copy existing grades (AAA~B) rows/cols ---
|
||||||
|
# 7x7 index mapping: 0-5 -> 0-5 (AAA~B), 6 -> 7 (D)
|
||||||
|
for i in range(6): # AAA~B rows
|
||||||
|
for j in range(6): # AAA~B cols
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[i, j] = tm_7x7[i, j]
|
||||||
|
# D col: 7x7 col6 -> 8x8 col7
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[i, 7] = tm_7x7[i, 6]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- Step 2: CCC column (col6) for existing grades ---
|
||||||
|
# For each grade AAA~B, split some probability from D column to CCC
|
||||||
|
# Rationale: some firms default through CCC before reaching D
|
||||||
|
for i in range(6):
|
||||||
|
pd_i = tm_7x7[i, 6] # P(i -> D) in 7x7
|
||||||
|
if pd_i > 0:
|
||||||
|
# B row: larger CCC fraction (B is adjacent to CCC)
|
||||||
|
# Higher grades: smaller CCC fraction
|
||||||
|
grade_distance_from_b = max(5 - i, 0)
|
||||||
|
# B->CCC gets ~30%, BB->CCC ~20%, BBB->CCC ~10%, A->CCC ~5%
|
||||||
|
ccc_fraction = max(0.30 - grade_distance_from_b * 0.06, 0.02)
|
||||||
|
ccc_prob = pd_i * ccc_fraction
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[i, 6] = ccc_prob # to CCC
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[i, 7] = pd_i - ccc_prob # remaining to D
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[i, 6] = 0.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- Step 3: CCC row (row 6) via interpolation ---
|
||||||
|
b_row = np.zeros(8)
|
||||||
|
d_row = np.zeros(8)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Expand B row (7x7 row5) to 8x8 space
|
||||||
|
for j in range(6):
|
||||||
|
b_row[j] = tm_7x7[5, j]
|
||||||
|
b_row[6] = 0.0 # placeholder for CCC
|
||||||
|
b_row[7] = tm_7x7[5, 6]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# D row in 8x8: absorbing state
|
||||||
|
d_row[7] = 1.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if method == "geometric":
|
||||||
|
# Geometric interpolation in log space
|
||||||
|
ccc_row = _geometric_interp(b_row, d_row, alpha)
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
# Linear interpolation
|
||||||
|
ccc_row = alpha * b_row + (1 - alpha) * d_row
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Ensure CCC PD is between B PD and 1.0
|
||||||
|
# CCC should default more than B
|
||||||
|
ccc_pd = max(ccc_row[7], b_row[7] * 1.5)
|
||||||
|
ccc_pd = min(ccc_pd, 0.60) # cap at 60%
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# CCC stay rate
|
||||||
|
ccc_stay = max(1.0 - ccc_pd - ccc_row[:6].sum() - ccc_row[6], 0.30)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Reassemble CCC row
|
||||||
|
# Upgrade probabilities from B row, scaled down
|
||||||
|
for j in range(5): # AAA~BB: very small upgrade from CCC
|
||||||
|
ccc_row[j] = b_row[j] * 0.3 # CCC upgrades less than B
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ccc_row[5] = b_row[5] * 0.5 # CCC -> B (upgrade)
|
||||||
|
ccc_row[6] = ccc_stay # CCC -> CCC (stay)
|
||||||
|
ccc_row[7] = ccc_pd # CCC -> D
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[6, :] = ccc_row
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- Step 4: D row (absorbing state) ---
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[7, :] = 0.0
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[7, 7] = 1.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- Step 5: Normalize rows ---
|
||||||
|
for i in range(8):
|
||||||
|
s = tm_8x8[i].sum()
|
||||||
|
if s > 0:
|
||||||
|
tm_8x8[i] /= s
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return tm_8x8
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _geometric_interp(
|
||||||
|
row_a: np.ndarray,
|
||||||
|
row_b: np.ndarray,
|
||||||
|
alpha: float = 0.5,
|
||||||
|
eps: float = 1e-10
|
||||||
|
) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Geometric (log-space) interpolation between two probability rows."""
|
||||||
|
result = np.zeros_like(row_a)
|
||||||
|
for j in range(len(row_a)):
|
||||||
|
a = max(row_a[j], eps)
|
||||||
|
b = max(row_b[j], eps)
|
||||||
|
result[j] = np.exp(alpha * np.log(a) + (1 - alpha) * np.log(b))
|
||||||
|
return result
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def expand_conditional_tm(
|
||||||
|
cond_7x7: np.ndarray,
|
||||||
|
ttc_8x8: np.ndarray = None
|
||||||
|
) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
Expand a Z-conditional 7x7 TM to 8x8 using the same interpolation.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is used in the lifetime PD projection pipeline:
|
||||||
|
1. Estimate Zt from 7x7 matrices
|
||||||
|
2. Generate Z-conditional 7x7 TM
|
||||||
|
3. Expand to 8x8 for lifetime PD calculation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
cond_7x7 : np.ndarray
|
||||||
|
Z-conditional 7x7 transition matrix
|
||||||
|
ttc_8x8 : np.ndarray, optional
|
||||||
|
Reference TTC 8x8 for CCC structure (if available)
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
return expand_to_8x8(cond_7x7)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from data.transition_matrices import load_transition_matrices, compute_ttc_matrix
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
matrices = load_transition_matrices(source="real")
|
||||||
|
ttc_7x7 = compute_ttc_matrix(matrices)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("=== TTC 7x7 ===")
|
||||||
|
for i, g in enumerate(GRADES_7):
|
||||||
|
print(f" {g:>4}: [{', '.join(f'{v:.4f}' for v in ttc_7x7[i])}]")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ttc_8x8 = expand_to_8x8(ttc_7x7)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("\n=== TTC 8x8 (CCC interpolated) ===")
|
||||||
|
for i, g in enumerate(GRADES_8):
|
||||||
|
print(f" {g:>4}: [{', '.join(f'{v:.4f}' for v in ttc_8x8[i])}]")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Verify: PD ordering
|
||||||
|
print("\n=== PD ordering check ===")
|
||||||
|
for i, g in enumerate(GRADES_8[:-1]):
|
||||||
|
print(f" {g:>4}: PD = {ttc_8x8[i, -1]*10000:.1f}bp")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Check row sums
|
||||||
|
print("\n=== Row sum check ===")
|
||||||
|
for i in range(8):
|
||||||
|
print(f" {GRADES_8[i]:>4}: sum = {ttc_8x8[i].sum():.6f}")
|
||||||
@@ -79,6 +79,16 @@ ECOS_VARIABLES = [
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
# --- 가계 ---
|
# --- 가계 ---
|
||||||
{"name": "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT","stat": "151Y001", "period": "Q", "item": "A11", "agg": "last", "desc": "가계부채 (조원)"},
|
{"name": "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT","stat": "151Y001", "period": "Q", "item": "A11", "agg": "last", "desc": "가계부채 (조원)"},
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- 투자/저축 (2.1.1.1 주요지표 연간) ---
|
||||||
|
{"name": "CONSTR_INVEST", "stat": "200Y002", "period": "A", "item": "10315", "agg": None, "desc": "건설투자 증감률 (%)"},
|
||||||
|
{"name": "GFCF_GROWTH", "stat": "200Y002", "period": "A", "item": "10311", "agg": None, "desc": "총고정자본형성 증감률 (%)"},
|
||||||
|
{"name": "SAVING_RATE", "stat": "200Y002", "period": "A", "item": "10903", "agg": None, "desc": "총저축률 (%)"},
|
||||||
|
{"name": "INVEST_RATE", "stat": "200Y002", "period": "A", "item": "10904", "agg": None, "desc": "국내총투자율 (%)"},
|
||||||
|
{"name": "TRADE_GNI", "stat": "200Y002", "period": "A", "item": "10910", "agg": None, "desc": "수출입의 대 GNI 비율 (%)"},
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- 제조업 (8.3.7) ---
|
||||||
|
{"name": "MANUF_CAPACITY", "stat": "901Y033", "period": "M", "item": "I21A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "제조업 평균가동률 (2020=100)"},
|
||||||
]
|
]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
@@ -98,61 +108,61 @@ ECOS_VARIABLES = [
|
|||||||
# SPI: 서비스업생산지수 (2020=100)
|
# SPI: 서비스업생산지수 (2020=100)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
def _build_fallback() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
def _build_fallback() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
||||||
"""API 없이 작동하는 확장 fallback — 31개 변수"""
|
"""API 없이 작동하는 확장 fallback — 37개 변수"""
|
||||||
# fmt: off
|
# fmt: off
|
||||||
data = {
|
data = {
|
||||||
2000: {"GDP_GROWTH":8.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":4.4,"BASE_RATE":5.25,"CD_RATE":7.09,"CPI_GROWTH":2.3,"LEADING_INDEX":101.2,"GOVT_3Y":8.35,"GOVT_10Y":8.55,"CORP_AA":9.35,"CORP_BBB":11.90,"IPI":102.5,"EXPORT":172268,"IMPORT_AMT":160481,"USDKRW":1131,"M2":651.8,"CSI":101.0,"KOSPI":504,"IMPORT_PRICE":78.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.46,"HOUSING_PRICE":55.2,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":194.0,
|
2000: {"GDP_GROWTH":8.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":4.4,"BASE_RATE":5.25,"CD_RATE":7.09,"CPI_GROWTH":2.3,"LEADING_INDEX":101.2,"GOVT_3Y":8.35,"GOVT_10Y":8.55,"CORP_AA":9.35,"CORP_BBB":11.90,"IPI":102.5,"EXPORT":172268,"IMPORT_AMT":160481,"USDKRW":1131,"M2":651.8,"CSI":101.0,"KOSPI":504,"IMPORT_PRICE":78.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.46,"HOUSING_PRICE":55.2,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":194.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":62.5,"RETAIL_SALES":72.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":123.5,"EMPLOYED":2115,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":58.5,"OIL_PRICE":26.2,"COINCIDENT":99.8,"BSI_MANUF":90,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":56.3,"SPI":58.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":62.5,"RETAIL_SALES":72.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":123.5,"EMPLOYED":2115,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":58.5,"OIL_PRICE":26.2,"COINCIDENT":99.8,"BSI_MANUF":90,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":56.3,"SPI":58.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-1.4,"GFCF_GROWTH":11.4,"SAVING_RATE":33.7,"INVEST_RATE":31.0,"TRADE_GNI":72.5,"MANUF_CAPACITY":109.5},
|
||||||
2001: {"GDP_GROWTH":4.5,"UNEMPLOYMENT":4.0,"BASE_RATE":4.00,"CD_RATE":5.34,"CPI_GROWTH":4.1,"LEADING_INDEX":99.5,"GOVT_3Y":6.70,"GOVT_10Y":7.05,"CORP_AA":8.12,"CORP_BBB":11.27,"IPI":99.5,"EXPORT":150439,"IMPORT_AMT":141098,"USDKRW":1291,"M2":736.5,"CSI":96.5,"KOSPI":694,"IMPORT_PRICE":73.6,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.28,"HOUSING_PRICE":56.8,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":225.0,
|
2001: {"GDP_GROWTH":4.5,"UNEMPLOYMENT":4.0,"BASE_RATE":4.00,"CD_RATE":5.34,"CPI_GROWTH":4.1,"LEADING_INDEX":99.5,"GOVT_3Y":6.70,"GOVT_10Y":7.05,"CORP_AA":8.12,"CORP_BBB":11.27,"IPI":99.5,"EXPORT":150439,"IMPORT_AMT":141098,"USDKRW":1291,"M2":736.5,"CSI":96.5,"KOSPI":694,"IMPORT_PRICE":73.6,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.28,"HOUSING_PRICE":56.8,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":225.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":58.5,"RETAIL_SALES":73.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":80.3,"EMPLOYED":2118,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":59.0,"OIL_PRICE":22.8,"COINCIDENT":98.0,"BSI_MANUF":82,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":53.8,"SPI":60.2},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":58.5,"RETAIL_SALES":73.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":80.3,"EMPLOYED":2118,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":59.0,"OIL_PRICE":22.8,"COINCIDENT":98.0,"BSI_MANUF":82,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":53.8,"SPI":60.2,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":5.6,"GFCF_GROWTH":0.6,"SAVING_RATE":31.7,"INVEST_RATE":29.3,"TRADE_GNI":66.3,"MANUF_CAPACITY":105.8},
|
||||||
2002: {"GDP_GROWTH":7.4,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.3,"BASE_RATE":4.25,"CD_RATE":4.99,"CPI_GROWTH":2.8,"LEADING_INDEX":102.3,"GOVT_3Y":6.06,"GOVT_10Y":6.58,"CORP_AA":7.02,"CORP_BBB":9.75,"IPI":108.5,"EXPORT":162471,"IMPORT_AMT":152126,"USDKRW":1251,"M2":816.3,"CSI":105.0,"KOSPI":628,"IMPORT_PRICE":72.1,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.18,"HOUSING_PRICE":65.3,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":306.0,
|
2002: {"GDP_GROWTH":7.4,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.3,"BASE_RATE":4.25,"CD_RATE":4.99,"CPI_GROWTH":2.8,"LEADING_INDEX":102.3,"GOVT_3Y":6.06,"GOVT_10Y":6.58,"CORP_AA":7.02,"CORP_BBB":9.75,"IPI":108.5,"EXPORT":162471,"IMPORT_AMT":152126,"USDKRW":1251,"M2":816.3,"CSI":105.0,"KOSPI":628,"IMPORT_PRICE":72.1,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.18,"HOUSING_PRICE":65.3,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":306.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":63.2,"RETAIL_SALES":76.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":53.9,"EMPLOYED":2217,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.0,"OIL_PRICE":23.7,"COINCIDENT":101.5,"BSI_MANUF":92,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":55.2,"SPI":63.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":63.2,"RETAIL_SALES":76.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":53.9,"EMPLOYED":2217,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.0,"OIL_PRICE":23.7,"COINCIDENT":101.5,"BSI_MANUF":92,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":55.2,"SPI":63.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":6.5,"GFCF_GROWTH":6.7,"SAVING_RATE":31.3,"INVEST_RATE":29.1,"TRADE_GNI":62.4,"MANUF_CAPACITY":110.5},
|
||||||
2003: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.6,"BASE_RATE":3.75,"CD_RATE":4.24,"CPI_GROWTH":3.5,"LEADING_INDEX":98.8,"GOVT_3Y":4.93,"GOVT_10Y":5.45,"CORP_AA":5.70,"CORP_BBB":8.97,"IPI":109.8,"EXPORT":193817,"IMPORT_AMT":178827,"USDKRW":1192,"M2":879.2,"CSI":96.0,"KOSPI":811,"IMPORT_PRICE":81.3,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.12,"HOUSING_PRICE":71.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":360.0,
|
2003: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.6,"BASE_RATE":3.75,"CD_RATE":4.24,"CPI_GROWTH":3.5,"LEADING_INDEX":98.8,"GOVT_3Y":4.93,"GOVT_10Y":5.45,"CORP_AA":5.70,"CORP_BBB":8.97,"IPI":109.8,"EXPORT":193817,"IMPORT_AMT":178827,"USDKRW":1192,"M2":879.2,"CSI":96.0,"KOSPI":811,"IMPORT_PRICE":81.3,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.12,"HOUSING_PRICE":71.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":360.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":60.5,"RETAIL_SALES":74.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":119.5,"EMPLOYED":2212,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":59.5,"OIL_PRICE":26.8,"COINCIDENT":99.2,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":58.0,"SPI":64.8},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":60.5,"RETAIL_SALES":74.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":119.5,"EMPLOYED":2212,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":59.5,"OIL_PRICE":26.8,"COINCIDENT":99.2,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":58.0,"SPI":64.8,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":10.0,"GFCF_GROWTH":4.0,"SAVING_RATE":32.6,"INVEST_RATE":30.0,"TRADE_GNI":65.0,"MANUF_CAPACITY":108.2},
|
||||||
2004: {"GDP_GROWTH":4.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":3.25,"CD_RATE":3.77,"CPI_GROWTH":3.6,"LEADING_INDEX":100.5,"GOVT_3Y":4.11,"GOVT_10Y":4.73,"CORP_AA":4.72,"CORP_BBB":7.53,"IPI":119.2,"EXPORT":253845,"IMPORT_AMT":224463,"USDKRW":1145,"M2":935.3,"CSI":97.0,"KOSPI":896,"IMPORT_PRICE":90.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.08,"HOUSING_PRICE":71.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":394.0,
|
2004: {"GDP_GROWTH":4.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":3.25,"CD_RATE":3.77,"CPI_GROWTH":3.6,"LEADING_INDEX":100.5,"GOVT_3Y":4.11,"GOVT_10Y":4.73,"CORP_AA":4.72,"CORP_BBB":7.53,"IPI":119.2,"EXPORT":253845,"IMPORT_AMT":224463,"USDKRW":1145,"M2":935.3,"CSI":97.0,"KOSPI":896,"IMPORT_PRICE":90.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.08,"HOUSING_PRICE":71.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":394.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":66.5,"RETAIL_SALES":74.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":284.2,"EMPLOYED":2272,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":59.8,"OIL_PRICE":33.5,"COINCIDENT":100.8,"BSI_MANUF":88,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":63.5,"SPI":66.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":66.5,"RETAIL_SALES":74.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":284.2,"EMPLOYED":2272,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":59.8,"OIL_PRICE":33.5,"COINCIDENT":100.8,"BSI_MANUF":88,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":63.5,"SPI":66.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":1.8,"GFCF_GROWTH":2.1,"SAVING_RATE":34.8,"INVEST_RATE":30.3,"TRADE_GNI":73.5,"MANUF_CAPACITY":113.8},
|
||||||
2005: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":3.75,"CD_RATE":3.81,"CPI_GROWTH":2.8,"LEADING_INDEX":101.8,"GOVT_3Y":4.27,"GOVT_10Y":4.95,"CORP_AA":4.68,"CORP_BBB":6.51,"IPI":126.0,"EXPORT":284419,"IMPORT_AMT":261238,"USDKRW":1024,"M2":1002.7,"CSI":100.5,"KOSPI":1011,"IMPORT_PRICE":99.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.06,"HOUSING_PRICE":73.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":440.0,
|
2005: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":3.75,"CD_RATE":3.81,"CPI_GROWTH":2.8,"LEADING_INDEX":101.8,"GOVT_3Y":4.27,"GOVT_10Y":4.95,"CORP_AA":4.68,"CORP_BBB":6.51,"IPI":126.0,"EXPORT":284419,"IMPORT_AMT":261238,"USDKRW":1024,"M2":1002.7,"CSI":100.5,"KOSPI":1011,"IMPORT_PRICE":99.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.06,"HOUSING_PRICE":73.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":440.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":68.0,"RETAIL_SALES":76.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":149.8,"EMPLOYED":2297,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.3,"OIL_PRICE":49.3,"COINCIDENT":101.2,"BSI_MANUF":92,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":66.0,"SPI":68.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":68.0,"RETAIL_SALES":76.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":149.8,"EMPLOYED":2297,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.3,"OIL_PRICE":49.3,"COINCIDENT":101.2,"BSI_MANUF":92,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":66.0,"SPI":68.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-0.4,"GFCF_GROWTH":1.9,"SAVING_RATE":33.4,"INVEST_RATE":29.7,"TRADE_GNI":72.5,"MANUF_CAPACITY":114.5},
|
||||||
2006: {"GDP_GROWTH":5.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.5,"BASE_RATE":4.50,"CD_RATE":4.72,"CPI_GROWTH":2.2,"LEADING_INDEX":102.5,"GOVT_3Y":4.83,"GOVT_10Y":5.17,"CORP_AA":5.25,"CORP_BBB":7.08,"IPI":136.0,"EXPORT":325465,"IMPORT_AMT":309383,"USDKRW":955,"M2":1089.9,"CSI":106.0,"KOSPI":1434,"IMPORT_PRICE":107.8,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.05,"HOUSING_PRICE":80.2,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":497.0,
|
2006: {"GDP_GROWTH":5.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.5,"BASE_RATE":4.50,"CD_RATE":4.72,"CPI_GROWTH":2.2,"LEADING_INDEX":102.5,"GOVT_3Y":4.83,"GOVT_10Y":5.17,"CORP_AA":5.25,"CORP_BBB":7.08,"IPI":136.0,"EXPORT":325465,"IMPORT_AMT":309383,"USDKRW":955,"M2":1089.9,"CSI":106.0,"KOSPI":1434,"IMPORT_PRICE":107.8,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.05,"HOUSING_PRICE":80.2,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":497.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":73.5,"RETAIL_SALES":78.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":53.9,"EMPLOYED":2334,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.9,"OIL_PRICE":61.5,"COINCIDENT":102.8,"BSI_MANUF":95,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":69.5,"SPI":71.2},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":73.5,"RETAIL_SALES":78.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":53.9,"EMPLOYED":2334,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.9,"OIL_PRICE":61.5,"COINCIDENT":102.8,"BSI_MANUF":95,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":69.5,"SPI":71.2,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":0.5,"GFCF_GROWTH":3.4,"SAVING_RATE":32.5,"INVEST_RATE":29.6,"TRADE_GNI":73.2,"MANUF_CAPACITY":115.8},
|
||||||
2007: {"GDP_GROWTH":5.5,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.2,"BASE_RATE":5.00,"CD_RATE":5.36,"CPI_GROWTH":2.5,"LEADING_INDEX":103.1,"GOVT_3Y":5.23,"GOVT_10Y":5.42,"CORP_AA":5.70,"CORP_BBB":7.44,"IPI":144.5,"EXPORT":371489,"IMPORT_AMT":356846,"USDKRW":929,"M2":1181.6,"CSI":108.5,"KOSPI":1897,"IMPORT_PRICE":109.3,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":83.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":560.0,
|
2007: {"GDP_GROWTH":5.5,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.2,"BASE_RATE":5.00,"CD_RATE":5.36,"CPI_GROWTH":2.5,"LEADING_INDEX":103.1,"GOVT_3Y":5.23,"GOVT_10Y":5.42,"CORP_AA":5.70,"CORP_BBB":7.44,"IPI":144.5,"EXPORT":371489,"IMPORT_AMT":356846,"USDKRW":929,"M2":1181.6,"CSI":108.5,"KOSPI":1897,"IMPORT_PRICE":109.3,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":83.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":560.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":78.5,"RETAIL_SALES":80.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":59.5,"EMPLOYED":2371,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.3,"OIL_PRICE":68.4,"COINCIDENT":103.5,"BSI_MANUF":97,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.8,"SPI":74.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":78.5,"RETAIL_SALES":80.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":59.5,"EMPLOYED":2371,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.3,"OIL_PRICE":68.4,"COINCIDENT":103.5,"BSI_MANUF":97,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.8,"SPI":74.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":1.4,"GFCF_GROWTH":4.2,"SAVING_RATE":32.4,"INVEST_RATE":29.4,"TRADE_GNI":77.8,"MANUF_CAPACITY":115.2},
|
||||||
2008: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.2,"BASE_RATE":3.00,"CD_RATE":5.70,"CPI_GROWTH":4.7,"LEADING_INDEX":96.5,"GOVT_3Y":5.27,"GOVT_10Y":5.57,"CORP_AA":7.02,"CORP_BBB":10.73,"IPI":148.2,"EXPORT":422007,"IMPORT_AMT":435275,"USDKRW":1103,"M2":1263.2,"CSI":86.0,"KOSPI":1124,"IMPORT_PRICE":132.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.11,"HOUSING_PRICE":84.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":630.0,
|
2008: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.2,"BASE_RATE":3.00,"CD_RATE":5.70,"CPI_GROWTH":4.7,"LEADING_INDEX":96.5,"GOVT_3Y":5.27,"GOVT_10Y":5.57,"CORP_AA":7.02,"CORP_BBB":10.73,"IPI":148.2,"EXPORT":422007,"IMPORT_AMT":435275,"USDKRW":1103,"M2":1263.2,"CSI":86.0,"KOSPI":1124,"IMPORT_PRICE":132.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.11,"HOUSING_PRICE":84.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":630.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":76.0,"RETAIL_SALES":79.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":-57.8,"EMPLOYED":2385,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.5,"OIL_PRICE":94.3,"COINCIDENT":98.5,"BSI_MANUF":72,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":74.5,"SPI":75.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":76.0,"RETAIL_SALES":79.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":-57.8,"EMPLOYED":2385,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.5,"OIL_PRICE":94.3,"COINCIDENT":98.5,"BSI_MANUF":72,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":74.5,"SPI":75.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-2.8,"GFCF_GROWTH":-1.9,"SAVING_RATE":31.5,"INVEST_RATE":31.2,"TRADE_GNI":96.5,"MANUF_CAPACITY":112.8},
|
||||||
2009: {"GDP_GROWTH":0.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.6,"BASE_RATE":2.00,"CD_RATE":2.63,"CPI_GROWTH":2.8,"LEADING_INDEX":98.2,"GOVT_3Y":4.04,"GOVT_10Y":4.85,"CORP_AA":5.80,"CORP_BBB":9.24,"IPI":140.0,"EXPORT":363534,"IMPORT_AMT":323085,"USDKRW":1276,"M2":1404.4,"CSI":85.0,"KOSPI":1683,"IMPORT_PRICE":104.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.10,"HOUSING_PRICE":84.8,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":694.0,
|
2009: {"GDP_GROWTH":0.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.6,"BASE_RATE":2.00,"CD_RATE":2.63,"CPI_GROWTH":2.8,"LEADING_INDEX":98.2,"GOVT_3Y":4.04,"GOVT_10Y":4.85,"CORP_AA":5.80,"CORP_BBB":9.24,"IPI":140.0,"EXPORT":363534,"IMPORT_AMT":323085,"USDKRW":1276,"M2":1404.4,"CSI":85.0,"KOSPI":1683,"IMPORT_PRICE":104.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.10,"HOUSING_PRICE":84.8,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":694.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":60.5,"RETAIL_SALES":77.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":328.1,"EMPLOYED":2355,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.1,"OIL_PRICE":61.8,"COINCIDENT":96.5,"BSI_MANUF":68,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":68.2,"SPI":76.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":60.5,"RETAIL_SALES":77.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":328.1,"EMPLOYED":2355,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.1,"OIL_PRICE":61.8,"COINCIDENT":96.5,"BSI_MANUF":68,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":68.2,"SPI":76.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":0.2,"GFCF_GROWTH":-1.0,"SAVING_RATE":31.4,"INVEST_RATE":26.3,"TRADE_GNI":82.0,"MANUF_CAPACITY":102.5},
|
||||||
2010: {"GDP_GROWTH":6.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":2.50,"CD_RATE":2.80,"CPI_GROWTH":2.9,"LEADING_INDEX":103.0,"GOVT_3Y":3.72,"GOVT_10Y":4.49,"CORP_AA":4.66,"CORP_BBB":7.98,"IPI":161.5,"EXPORT":466384,"IMPORT_AMT":425212,"USDKRW":1156,"M2":1504.3,"CSI":107.0,"KOSPI":2051,"IMPORT_PRICE":115.8,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.06,"HOUSING_PRICE":87.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":776.0,
|
2010: {"GDP_GROWTH":6.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":2.50,"CD_RATE":2.80,"CPI_GROWTH":2.9,"LEADING_INDEX":103.0,"GOVT_3Y":3.72,"GOVT_10Y":4.49,"CORP_AA":4.66,"CORP_BBB":7.98,"IPI":161.5,"EXPORT":466384,"IMPORT_AMT":425212,"USDKRW":1156,"M2":1504.3,"CSI":107.0,"KOSPI":2051,"IMPORT_PRICE":115.8,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.06,"HOUSING_PRICE":87.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":776.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":80.5,"RETAIL_SALES":80.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":282.1,"EMPLOYED":2397,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.4,"OIL_PRICE":78.1,"COINCIDENT":103.0,"BSI_MANUF":95,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.0,"SPI":78.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":80.5,"RETAIL_SALES":80.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":282.1,"EMPLOYED":2397,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.4,"OIL_PRICE":78.1,"COINCIDENT":103.0,"BSI_MANUF":95,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.0,"SPI":78.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-1.4,"GFCF_GROWTH":5.8,"SAVING_RATE":33.5,"INVEST_RATE":29.5,"TRADE_GNI":87.9,"MANUF_CAPACITY":113.0},
|
||||||
2011: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.7,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.4,"BASE_RATE":3.25,"CD_RATE":3.55,"CPI_GROWTH":4.0,"LEADING_INDEX":101.2,"GOVT_3Y":3.62,"GOVT_10Y":4.05,"CORP_AA":4.41,"CORP_BBB":7.75,"IPI":168.0,"EXPORT":555214,"IMPORT_AMT":524413,"USDKRW":1108,"M2":1586.5,"CSI":100.0,"KOSPI":1826,"IMPORT_PRICE":130.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.05,"HOUSING_PRICE":89.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":857.0,
|
2011: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.7,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.4,"BASE_RATE":3.25,"CD_RATE":3.55,"CPI_GROWTH":4.0,"LEADING_INDEX":101.2,"GOVT_3Y":3.62,"GOVT_10Y":4.05,"CORP_AA":4.41,"CORP_BBB":7.75,"IPI":168.0,"EXPORT":555214,"IMPORT_AMT":524413,"USDKRW":1108,"M2":1586.5,"CSI":100.0,"KOSPI":1826,"IMPORT_PRICE":130.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.05,"HOUSING_PRICE":89.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":857.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":82.0,"RETAIL_SALES":82.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":184.1,"EMPLOYED":2424,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.7,"OIL_PRICE":106.0,"COINCIDENT":102.5,"BSI_MANUF":90,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":73.5,"SPI":80.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":82.0,"RETAIL_SALES":82.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":184.1,"EMPLOYED":2424,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":60.7,"OIL_PRICE":106.0,"COINCIDENT":102.5,"BSI_MANUF":90,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":73.5,"SPI":80.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-4.9,"GFCF_GROWTH":0.8,"SAVING_RATE":34.0,"INVEST_RATE":29.4,"TRADE_GNI":96.7,"MANUF_CAPACITY":112.5},
|
||||||
2012: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.4,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.2,"BASE_RATE":2.75,"CD_RATE":3.13,"CPI_GROWTH":2.2,"LEADING_INDEX":100.3,"GOVT_3Y":3.13,"GOVT_10Y":3.35,"CORP_AA":3.76,"CORP_BBB":6.56,"IPI":168.2,"EXPORT":547870,"IMPORT_AMT":519584,"USDKRW":1127,"M2":1673.5,"CSI":100.5,"KOSPI":1997,"IMPORT_PRICE":123.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":89.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":934.0,
|
2012: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.4,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.2,"BASE_RATE":2.75,"CD_RATE":3.13,"CPI_GROWTH":2.2,"LEADING_INDEX":100.3,"GOVT_3Y":3.13,"GOVT_10Y":3.35,"CORP_AA":3.76,"CORP_BBB":6.56,"IPI":168.2,"EXPORT":547870,"IMPORT_AMT":519584,"USDKRW":1127,"M2":1673.5,"CSI":100.5,"KOSPI":1997,"IMPORT_PRICE":123.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":89.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":934.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":79.0,"RETAIL_SALES":83.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":508.4,"EMPLOYED":2468,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.3,"OIL_PRICE":109.1,"COINCIDENT":100.5,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.0,"SPI":82.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":79.0,"RETAIL_SALES":83.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":508.4,"EMPLOYED":2468,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.3,"OIL_PRICE":109.1,"COINCIDENT":100.5,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.0,"SPI":82.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-3.2,"GFCF_GROWTH":-0.5,"SAVING_RATE":33.8,"INVEST_RATE":28.4,"TRADE_GNI":96.8,"MANUF_CAPACITY":110.2},
|
||||||
2013: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.1,"BASE_RATE":2.50,"CD_RATE":2.72,"CPI_GROWTH":1.3,"LEADING_INDEX":100.8,"GOVT_3Y":2.79,"GOVT_10Y":3.28,"CORP_AA":3.19,"CORP_BBB":5.87,"IPI":168.8,"EXPORT":559632,"IMPORT_AMT":515586,"USDKRW":1095,"M2":1756.2,"CSI":103.0,"KOSPI":2011,"IMPORT_PRICE":115.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":88.8,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":980.0,
|
2013: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.1,"BASE_RATE":2.50,"CD_RATE":2.72,"CPI_GROWTH":1.3,"LEADING_INDEX":100.8,"GOVT_3Y":2.79,"GOVT_10Y":3.28,"CORP_AA":3.19,"CORP_BBB":5.87,"IPI":168.8,"EXPORT":559632,"IMPORT_AMT":515586,"USDKRW":1095,"M2":1756.2,"CSI":103.0,"KOSPI":2011,"IMPORT_PRICE":115.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":88.8,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":980.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":77.5,"RETAIL_SALES":85.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":812.1,"EMPLOYED":2503,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.6,"OIL_PRICE":105.5,"COINCIDENT":101.0,"BSI_MANUF":88,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":71.5,"SPI":84.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":77.5,"RETAIL_SALES":85.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":812.1,"EMPLOYED":2503,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":61.6,"OIL_PRICE":105.5,"COINCIDENT":101.0,"BSI_MANUF":88,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":71.5,"SPI":84.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":5.4,"GFCF_GROWTH":3.3,"SAVING_RATE":34.0,"INVEST_RATE":28.7,"TRADE_GNI":93.2,"MANUF_CAPACITY":108.0},
|
||||||
2014: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.5,"BASE_RATE":2.00,"CD_RATE":2.36,"CPI_GROWTH":1.3,"LEADING_INDEX":101.0,"GOVT_3Y":2.56,"GOVT_10Y":2.92,"CORP_AA":2.99,"CORP_BBB":5.22,"IPI":168.5,"EXPORT":572665,"IMPORT_AMT":525515,"USDKRW":1053,"M2":1871.0,"CSI":104.0,"KOSPI":1916,"IMPORT_PRICE":105.6,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":90.2,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1050.0,
|
2014: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.5,"BASE_RATE":2.00,"CD_RATE":2.36,"CPI_GROWTH":1.3,"LEADING_INDEX":101.0,"GOVT_3Y":2.56,"GOVT_10Y":2.92,"CORP_AA":2.99,"CORP_BBB":5.22,"IPI":168.5,"EXPORT":572665,"IMPORT_AMT":525515,"USDKRW":1053,"M2":1871.0,"CSI":104.0,"KOSPI":1916,"IMPORT_PRICE":105.6,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.04,"HOUSING_PRICE":90.2,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1050.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":81.0,"RETAIL_SALES":86.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":843.5,"EMPLOYED":2546,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":62.4,"OIL_PRICE":96.7,"COINCIDENT":101.5,"BSI_MANUF":90,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":73.8,"SPI":86.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":81.0,"RETAIL_SALES":86.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":843.5,"EMPLOYED":2546,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":62.4,"OIL_PRICE":96.7,"COINCIDENT":101.5,"BSI_MANUF":90,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":73.8,"SPI":86.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":1.1,"GFCF_GROWTH":3.1,"SAVING_RATE":34.5,"INVEST_RATE":29.0,"TRADE_GNI":87.6,"MANUF_CAPACITY":108.8},
|
||||||
2015: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.6,"BASE_RATE":1.50,"CD_RATE":1.72,"CPI_GROWTH":0.7,"LEADING_INDEX":100.5,"GOVT_3Y":1.80,"GOVT_10Y":2.25,"CORP_AA":2.18,"CORP_BBB":4.61,"IPI":168.0,"EXPORT":526757,"IMPORT_AMT":436499,"USDKRW":1131,"M2":2010.0,"CSI":103.5,"KOSPI":1961,"IMPORT_PRICE":79.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":95.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1145.0,
|
2015: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.6,"BASE_RATE":1.50,"CD_RATE":1.72,"CPI_GROWTH":0.7,"LEADING_INDEX":100.5,"GOVT_3Y":1.80,"GOVT_10Y":2.25,"CORP_AA":2.18,"CORP_BBB":4.61,"IPI":168.0,"EXPORT":526757,"IMPORT_AMT":436499,"USDKRW":1131,"M2":2010.0,"CSI":103.5,"KOSPI":1961,"IMPORT_PRICE":79.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":95.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1145.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":84.5,"RETAIL_SALES":88.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":1059.4,"EMPLOYED":2567,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":62.6,"OIL_PRICE":51.2,"COINCIDENT":101.0,"BSI_MANUF":86,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":77.5,"SPI":88.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":84.5,"RETAIL_SALES":88.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":1059.4,"EMPLOYED":2567,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":62.6,"OIL_PRICE":51.2,"COINCIDENT":101.0,"BSI_MANUF":86,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":77.5,"SPI":88.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":9.1,"GFCF_GROWTH":5.1,"SAVING_RATE":36.0,"INVEST_RATE":28.8,"TRADE_GNI":79.8,"MANUF_CAPACITY":107.2},
|
||||||
2016: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":1.25,"CD_RATE":1.48,"CPI_GROWTH":1.0,"LEADING_INDEX":99.8,"GOVT_3Y":1.44,"GOVT_10Y":1.80,"CORP_AA":1.88,"CORP_BBB":4.60,"IPI":168.5,"EXPORT":495426,"IMPORT_AMT":406193,"USDKRW":1161,"M2":2151.1,"CSI":100.0,"KOSPI":2026,"IMPORT_PRICE":78.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":97.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1250.0,
|
2016: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":1.25,"CD_RATE":1.48,"CPI_GROWTH":1.0,"LEADING_INDEX":99.8,"GOVT_3Y":1.44,"GOVT_10Y":1.80,"CORP_AA":1.88,"CORP_BBB":4.60,"IPI":168.5,"EXPORT":495426,"IMPORT_AMT":406193,"USDKRW":1161,"M2":2151.1,"CSI":100.0,"KOSPI":2026,"IMPORT_PRICE":78.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":97.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1250.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":82.0,"RETAIL_SALES":89.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":992.4,"EMPLOYED":2597,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.0,"OIL_PRICE":41.3,"COINCIDENT":100.2,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":89.5,"SPI":90.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":82.0,"RETAIL_SALES":89.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":992.4,"EMPLOYED":2597,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.0,"OIL_PRICE":41.3,"COINCIDENT":100.2,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":89.5,"SPI":90.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":10.3,"GFCF_GROWTH":5.6,"SAVING_RATE":36.4,"INVEST_RATE":29.2,"TRADE_GNI":74.5,"MANUF_CAPACITY":106.0},
|
||||||
2017: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":1.50,"CD_RATE":1.52,"CPI_GROWTH":1.9,"LEADING_INDEX":101.5,"GOVT_3Y":1.80,"GOVT_10Y":2.33,"CORP_AA":2.28,"CORP_BBB":4.83,"IPI":174.2,"EXPORT":573694,"IMPORT_AMT":478478,"USDKRW":1131,"M2":2347.2,"CSI":105.0,"KOSPI":2467,"IMPORT_PRICE":90.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.02,"HOUSING_PRICE":100.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1364.0,
|
2017: {"GDP_GROWTH":3.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":1.50,"CD_RATE":1.52,"CPI_GROWTH":1.9,"LEADING_INDEX":101.5,"GOVT_3Y":1.80,"GOVT_10Y":2.33,"CORP_AA":2.28,"CORP_BBB":4.83,"IPI":174.2,"EXPORT":573694,"IMPORT_AMT":478478,"USDKRW":1131,"M2":2347.2,"CSI":105.0,"KOSPI":2467,"IMPORT_PRICE":90.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.02,"HOUSING_PRICE":100.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1364.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":92.0,"RETAIL_SALES":92.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":752.6,"EMPLOYED":2620,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.2,"OIL_PRICE":53.1,"COINCIDENT":101.8,"BSI_MANUF":92,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":90.0,"SPI":92.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":92.0,"RETAIL_SALES":92.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":752.6,"EMPLOYED":2620,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.2,"OIL_PRICE":53.1,"COINCIDENT":101.8,"BSI_MANUF":92,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":90.0,"SPI":92.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":7.3,"GFCF_GROWTH":9.8,"SAVING_RATE":36.6,"INVEST_RATE":31.1,"TRADE_GNI":77.3,"MANUF_CAPACITY":107.5},
|
||||||
2018: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.8,"BASE_RATE":1.75,"CD_RATE":1.85,"CPI_GROWTH":1.5,"LEADING_INDEX":100.8,"GOVT_3Y":2.10,"GOVT_10Y":2.56,"CORP_AA":2.67,"CORP_BBB":5.41,"IPI":178.0,"EXPORT":604860,"IMPORT_AMT":535202,"USDKRW":1100,"M2":2508.9,"CSI":102.0,"KOSPI":2041,"IMPORT_PRICE":100.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":102.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1497.0,
|
2018: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.9,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.8,"BASE_RATE":1.75,"CD_RATE":1.85,"CPI_GROWTH":1.5,"LEADING_INDEX":100.8,"GOVT_3Y":2.10,"GOVT_10Y":2.56,"CORP_AA":2.67,"CORP_BBB":5.41,"IPI":178.0,"EXPORT":604860,"IMPORT_AMT":535202,"USDKRW":1100,"M2":2508.9,"CSI":102.0,"KOSPI":2041,"IMPORT_PRICE":100.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":102.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1497.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":94.5,"RETAIL_SALES":94.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":774.7,"EMPLOYED":2633,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.1,"OIL_PRICE":69.5,"COINCIDENT":101.5,"BSI_MANUF":88,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":85.5,"SPI":94.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":94.5,"RETAIL_SALES":94.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":774.7,"EMPLOYED":2633,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.1,"OIL_PRICE":69.5,"COINCIDENT":101.5,"BSI_MANUF":88,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":85.5,"SPI":94.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-4.6,"GFCF_GROWTH":-2.4,"SAVING_RATE":35.9,"INVEST_RATE":30.3,"TRADE_GNI":77.3,"MANUF_CAPACITY":107.0},
|
||||||
2019: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.8,"BASE_RATE":1.25,"CD_RATE":1.63,"CPI_GROWTH":0.4,"LEADING_INDEX":99.3,"GOVT_3Y":1.50,"GOVT_10Y":1.74,"CORP_AA":1.93,"CORP_BBB":4.52,"IPI":175.5,"EXPORT":542233,"IMPORT_AMT":503343,"USDKRW":1166,"M2":2694.0,"CSI":97.0,"KOSPI":2198,"IMPORT_PRICE":92.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":104.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1573.0,
|
2019: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.8,"BASE_RATE":1.25,"CD_RATE":1.63,"CPI_GROWTH":0.4,"LEADING_INDEX":99.3,"GOVT_3Y":1.50,"GOVT_10Y":1.74,"CORP_AA":1.93,"CORP_BBB":4.52,"IPI":175.5,"EXPORT":542233,"IMPORT_AMT":503343,"USDKRW":1166,"M2":2694.0,"CSI":97.0,"KOSPI":2198,"IMPORT_PRICE":92.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":104.5,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1573.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":89.0,"RETAIL_SALES":96.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":597.0,"EMPLOYED":2660,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.5,"OIL_PRICE":63.4,"COINCIDENT":100.0,"BSI_MANUF":82,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":82.0,"SPI":97.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":89.0,"RETAIL_SALES":96.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":597.0,"EMPLOYED":2660,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.5,"OIL_PRICE":63.4,"COINCIDENT":100.0,"BSI_MANUF":82,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":82.0,"SPI":97.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-3.1,"GFCF_GROWTH":-2.1,"SAVING_RATE":34.6,"INVEST_RATE":30.5,"TRADE_GNI":72.1,"MANUF_CAPACITY":102.8},
|
||||||
2020: {"GDP_GROWTH":-0.7,"UNEMPLOYMENT":4.0,"BASE_RATE":0.50,"CD_RATE":0.76,"CPI_GROWTH":0.5,"LEADING_INDEX":97.0,"GOVT_3Y":0.98,"GOVT_10Y":1.52,"CORP_AA":2.03,"CORP_BBB":5.25,"IPI":170.0,"EXPORT":512498,"IMPORT_AMT":467633,"USDKRW":1180,"M2":3070.2,"CSI":90.0,"KOSPI":2873,"IMPORT_PRICE":85.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.02,"HOUSING_PRICE":110.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1723.0,
|
2020: {"GDP_GROWTH":-0.7,"UNEMPLOYMENT":4.0,"BASE_RATE":0.50,"CD_RATE":0.76,"CPI_GROWTH":0.5,"LEADING_INDEX":97.0,"GOVT_3Y":0.98,"GOVT_10Y":1.52,"CORP_AA":2.03,"CORP_BBB":5.25,"IPI":170.0,"EXPORT":512498,"IMPORT_AMT":467633,"USDKRW":1180,"M2":3070.2,"CSI":90.0,"KOSPI":2873,"IMPORT_PRICE":85.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.02,"HOUSING_PRICE":110.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1723.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":100.0,"RETAIL_SALES":100.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":752.8,"EMPLOYED":2630,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":62.5,"OIL_PRICE":42.3,"COINCIDENT":97.5,"BSI_MANUF":76,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":79.0,"SPI":100.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":100.0,"RETAIL_SALES":100.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":752.8,"EMPLOYED":2630,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":62.5,"OIL_PRICE":42.3,"COINCIDENT":97.5,"BSI_MANUF":76,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":79.0,"SPI":100.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-0.1,"GFCF_GROWTH":2.6,"SAVING_RATE":36.3,"INVEST_RATE":31.3,"TRADE_GNI":65.8,"MANUF_CAPACITY":100.0},
|
||||||
2021: {"GDP_GROWTH":4.3,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":1.00,"CD_RATE":1.09,"CPI_GROWTH":2.5,"LEADING_INDEX":102.8,"GOVT_3Y":1.43,"GOVT_10Y":2.12,"CORP_AA":2.26,"CORP_BBB":5.64,"IPI":183.0,"EXPORT":644400,"IMPORT_AMT":615093,"USDKRW":1144,"M2":3415.8,"CSI":106.0,"KOSPI":2978,"IMPORT_PRICE":110.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.01,"HOUSING_PRICE":122.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1853.0,
|
2021: {"GDP_GROWTH":4.3,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.7,"BASE_RATE":1.00,"CD_RATE":1.09,"CPI_GROWTH":2.5,"LEADING_INDEX":102.8,"GOVT_3Y":1.43,"GOVT_10Y":2.12,"CORP_AA":2.26,"CORP_BBB":5.64,"IPI":183.0,"EXPORT":644400,"IMPORT_AMT":615093,"USDKRW":1144,"M2":3415.8,"CSI":106.0,"KOSPI":2978,"IMPORT_PRICE":110.5,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.01,"HOUSING_PRICE":122.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1853.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":108.5,"RETAIL_SALES":105.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":883.0,"EMPLOYED":2672,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.8,"OIL_PRICE":69.3,"COINCIDENT":103.0,"BSI_MANUF":96,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":77.5,"SPI":104.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":108.5,"RETAIL_SALES":105.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":883.0,"EMPLOYED":2672,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":63.8,"OIL_PRICE":69.3,"COINCIDENT":103.0,"BSI_MANUF":96,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":77.5,"SPI":104.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-1.5,"GFCF_GROWTH":3.1,"SAVING_RATE":35.8,"INVEST_RATE":31.6,"TRADE_GNI":74.5,"MANUF_CAPACITY":105.2},
|
||||||
2022: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.6,"UNEMPLOYMENT":2.9,"BASE_RATE":3.25,"CD_RATE":3.77,"CPI_GROWTH":5.1,"LEADING_INDEX":99.2,"GOVT_3Y":3.14,"GOVT_10Y":3.60,"CORP_AA":4.25,"CORP_BBB":8.18,"IPI":186.5,"EXPORT":683585,"IMPORT_AMT":731370,"USDKRW":1292,"M2":3561.0,"CSI":95.0,"KOSPI":2237,"IMPORT_PRICE":140.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.02,"HOUSING_PRICE":128.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1903.0,
|
2022: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.6,"UNEMPLOYMENT":2.9,"BASE_RATE":3.25,"CD_RATE":3.77,"CPI_GROWTH":5.1,"LEADING_INDEX":99.2,"GOVT_3Y":3.14,"GOVT_10Y":3.60,"CORP_AA":4.25,"CORP_BBB":8.18,"IPI":186.5,"EXPORT":683585,"IMPORT_AMT":731370,"USDKRW":1292,"M2":3561.0,"CSI":95.0,"KOSPI":2237,"IMPORT_PRICE":140.2,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.02,"HOUSING_PRICE":128.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1903.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":105.0,"RETAIL_SALES":107.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":258.3,"EMPLOYED":2726,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":64.5,"OIL_PRICE":97.0,"COINCIDENT":100.5,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":76.0,"SPI":108.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":105.0,"RETAIL_SALES":107.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":258.3,"EMPLOYED":2726,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":64.5,"OIL_PRICE":97.0,"COINCIDENT":100.5,"BSI_MANUF":85,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":76.0,"SPI":108.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-3.5,"GFCF_GROWTH":-0.7,"SAVING_RATE":34.5,"INVEST_RATE":31.8,"TRADE_GNI":85.2,"MANUF_CAPACITY":104.5},
|
||||||
2023: {"GDP_GROWTH":1.4,"UNEMPLOYMENT":2.7,"BASE_RATE":3.50,"CD_RATE":3.75,"CPI_GROWTH":3.6,"LEADING_INDEX":98.8,"GOVT_3Y":3.55,"GOVT_10Y":3.78,"CORP_AA":4.40,"CORP_BBB":8.40,"IPI":183.0,"EXPORT":632744,"IMPORT_AMT":642756,"USDKRW":1305,"M2":3680.0,"CSI":96.5,"KOSPI":2655,"IMPORT_PRICE":120.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":118.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1920.0,
|
2023: {"GDP_GROWTH":1.4,"UNEMPLOYMENT":2.7,"BASE_RATE":3.50,"CD_RATE":3.75,"CPI_GROWTH":3.6,"LEADING_INDEX":98.8,"GOVT_3Y":3.55,"GOVT_10Y":3.78,"CORP_AA":4.40,"CORP_BBB":8.40,"IPI":183.0,"EXPORT":632744,"IMPORT_AMT":642756,"USDKRW":1305,"M2":3680.0,"CSI":96.5,"KOSPI":2655,"IMPORT_PRICE":120.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":118.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1920.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":102.0,"RETAIL_SALES":106.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":355.2,"EMPLOYED":2750,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":65.0,"OIL_PRICE":82.5,"COINCIDENT":99.2,"BSI_MANUF":80,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.0,"SPI":109.5},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":102.0,"RETAIL_SALES":106.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":355.2,"EMPLOYED":2750,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":65.0,"OIL_PRICE":82.5,"COINCIDENT":99.2,"BSI_MANUF":80,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":72.0,"SPI":109.5,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-0.5,"GFCF_GROWTH":1.5,"SAVING_RATE":34.0,"INVEST_RATE":30.8,"TRADE_GNI":80.5,"MANUF_CAPACITY":101.0},
|
||||||
2024: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":2.8,"BASE_RATE":3.00,"CD_RATE":3.30,"CPI_GROWTH":2.3,"LEADING_INDEX":99.5,"GOVT_3Y":3.20,"GOVT_10Y":3.42,"CORP_AA":3.90,"CORP_BBB":7.50,"IPI":185.0,"EXPORT":660000,"IMPORT_AMT":650000,"USDKRW":1350,"M2":3800.0,"CSI":98.0,"KOSPI":2400,"IMPORT_PRICE":115.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":115.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1950.0,
|
2024: {"GDP_GROWTH":2.2,"UNEMPLOYMENT":2.8,"BASE_RATE":3.00,"CD_RATE":3.30,"CPI_GROWTH":2.3,"LEADING_INDEX":99.5,"GOVT_3Y":3.20,"GOVT_10Y":3.42,"CORP_AA":3.90,"CORP_BBB":7.50,"IPI":185.0,"EXPORT":660000,"IMPORT_AMT":650000,"USDKRW":1350,"M2":3800.0,"CSI":98.0,"KOSPI":2400,"IMPORT_PRICE":115.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":115.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1950.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":103.5,"RETAIL_SALES":105.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":380.0,"EMPLOYED":2760,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":65.2,"OIL_PRICE":80.0,"COINCIDENT":99.5,"BSI_MANUF":82,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":68.0,"SPI":110.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":103.5,"RETAIL_SALES":105.5,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":380.0,"EMPLOYED":2760,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":65.2,"OIL_PRICE":80.0,"COINCIDENT":99.5,"BSI_MANUF":82,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":68.0,"SPI":110.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-3.3,"GFCF_GROWTH":0.8,"SAVING_RATE":33.5,"INVEST_RATE":30.0,"TRADE_GNI":82.0,"MANUF_CAPACITY":101.5},
|
||||||
2025: {"GDP_GROWTH":1.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.0,"BASE_RATE":2.75,"CD_RATE":3.00,"CPI_GROWTH":1.8,"LEADING_INDEX":99.8,"GOVT_3Y":2.80,"GOVT_10Y":3.10,"CORP_AA":3.50,"CORP_BBB":6.80,"IPI":184.0,"EXPORT":650000,"IMPORT_AMT":640000,"USDKRW":1380,"M2":3900.0,"CSI":99.0,"KOSPI":2500,"IMPORT_PRICE":110.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":112.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1980.0,
|
2025: {"GDP_GROWTH":1.8,"UNEMPLOYMENT":3.0,"BASE_RATE":2.75,"CD_RATE":3.00,"CPI_GROWTH":1.8,"LEADING_INDEX":99.8,"GOVT_3Y":2.80,"GOVT_10Y":3.10,"CORP_AA":3.50,"CORP_BBB":6.80,"IPI":184.0,"EXPORT":650000,"IMPORT_AMT":640000,"USDKRW":1380,"M2":3900.0,"CSI":99.0,"KOSPI":2500,"IMPORT_PRICE":110.0,"DISHONOR_RATE":0.03,"HOUSING_PRICE":112.0,"HOUSEHOLD_DEBT":1980.0,
|
||||||
"FACILITY_INVEST":104.0,"RETAIL_SALES":106.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":350.0,"EMPLOYED":2770,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":65.5,"OIL_PRICE":75.0,"COINCIDENT":100.0,"BSI_MANUF":84,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":65.0,"SPI":111.0},
|
"FACILITY_INVEST":104.0,"RETAIL_SALES":106.0,"CURRENT_ACCOUNT":350.0,"EMPLOYED":2770,"EMPLOYMENT_RATE":65.5,"OIL_PRICE":75.0,"COINCIDENT":100.0,"BSI_MANUF":84,"CONSTRUCTION_DONE":65.0,"SPI":111.0,"CONSTR_INVEST_GR":-2.0,"GFCF_GROWTH":1.0,"SAVING_RATE":33.0,"INVEST_RATE":29.5,"TRADE_GNI":81.0,"MANUF_CAPACITY":101.0},
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
# fmt: on
|
# fmt: on
|
||||||
return pd.DataFrame(data).T.rename_axis("YEAR")
|
return pd.DataFrame(data).T.rename_axis("YEAR")
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -29,7 +29,8 @@ if sys.stdout.encoding != 'utf-8':
|
|||||||
sys.stdout = io.TextIOWrapper(sys.stdout.buffer, encoding='utf-8', errors='replace')
|
sys.stdout = io.TextIOWrapper(sys.stdout.buffer, encoding='utf-8', errors='replace')
|
||||||
sys.stderr = io.TextIOWrapper(sys.stderr.buffer, encoding='utf-8', errors='replace')
|
sys.stderr = io.TextIOWrapper(sys.stderr.buffer, encoding='utf-8', errors='replace')
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
MODEL_GRADES = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "CCC", "D"]
|
MODEL_GRADES_7 = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "D"]
|
||||||
|
MODEL_GRADES_8 = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "CCC", "D"]
|
||||||
GRADE_LABELS = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB"] # B이하 is separate
|
GRADE_LABELS = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB"] # B이하 is separate
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
BASE_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent
|
BASE_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent
|
||||||
@@ -460,87 +461,72 @@ def _parse_kr_numbers(s: str) -> Optional[List[float]]:
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# ============================================================
|
# ============================================================
|
||||||
# 후처리: 6×8 → 8×8
|
# 후처리: 6x8 -> 7x7 (WR->D 보정 + CCC 제거)
|
||||||
# ============================================================
|
# ============================================================
|
||||||
def postprocess_matrix(raw_6x8: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
|
||||||
"""6×8 (AAA~B이하 × AAA~WR) → 8×8 (AAA~D × AAA~D)"""
|
_BROAD_GRADE_MAP_6 = {0: "AAA", 1: "AA", 2: "A", 3: "BBB", 4: "BB", 5: "B"}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def postprocess_matrix(raw_6x8, pd_floors=None):
|
||||||
|
"""6x8 (AAA~B이하 x AAA~WR+D) -> 7x7 (AAA~B+D)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Steps:
|
||||||
|
1. PD floor correction: if observed PD < floor, transfer from WR to D
|
||||||
|
2. Remaining WR -> proportional redistribution
|
||||||
|
3. B이하 -> B mapping
|
||||||
|
4. Add D row (absorbing state)
|
||||||
|
5. Normalize rows to sum=1
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
assert raw_6x8.shape == (6, 8), f"Expected (6,8), got {raw_6x8.shape}"
|
assert raw_6x8.shape == (6, 8), f"Expected (6,8), got {raw_6x8.shape}"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# WR 열(7) 제거 → 비례 재배분
|
mat = raw_6x8.copy()
|
||||||
mat_6x7 = raw_6x8[:, :7].copy()
|
COL_D = 6
|
||||||
for i in range(6):
|
COL_WR = 7
|
||||||
row_sum = mat_6x7[i].sum()
|
|
||||||
if row_sum > 0:
|
|
||||||
mat_6x7[i] = mat_6x7[i] / row_sum * 100.0
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# 8×8 구성: B이하(5) → B(5), D:col6→col7
|
# Step 1: PD floor correction (WR -> D transfer)
|
||||||
mat = np.zeros((8, 8))
|
if pd_floors is not None:
|
||||||
|
for i in range(6):
|
||||||
|
broad = _BROAD_GRADE_MAP_6[i]
|
||||||
|
if broad not in pd_floors:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
floor_pct = pd_floors[broad] * 100 # decimal -> %
|
||||||
|
observed_pd = mat[i, COL_D]
|
||||||
|
wr_available = mat[i, COL_WR]
|
||||||
|
if observed_pd < floor_pct and wr_available > 0:
|
||||||
|
deficit = floor_pct - observed_pd
|
||||||
|
transfer = min(deficit, wr_available)
|
||||||
|
mat[i, COL_D] += transfer
|
||||||
|
mat[i, COL_WR] -= transfer
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Step 2: Remaining WR -> proportional redistribution
|
||||||
|
for i in range(6):
|
||||||
|
wr_remaining = mat[i, COL_WR]
|
||||||
|
if wr_remaining > 0:
|
||||||
|
non_wr_cols = mat[i, :7]
|
||||||
|
non_wr_sum = non_wr_cols.sum()
|
||||||
|
if non_wr_sum > 0:
|
||||||
|
mat[i, :7] = non_wr_cols * (non_wr_sum + wr_remaining) / non_wr_sum
|
||||||
|
mat[i, COL_WR] = 0.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Step 3: B이하 -> B mapping + build 7x7
|
||||||
|
mat_7x7 = np.zeros((7, 7))
|
||||||
for i in range(6):
|
for i in range(6):
|
||||||
for j in range(6):
|
for j in range(6):
|
||||||
mat[i, j] = mat_6x7[i, j]
|
mat_7x7[i, j] = mat[i, j]
|
||||||
mat[i, 7] = mat_6x7[i, 6] # D
|
mat_7x7[i, 6] = mat[i, COL_D]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# CCC 행/열 extrapolation
|
# Step 4: D row (absorbing state)
|
||||||
mat = _extrapolate_ccc(mat)
|
mat_7x7[6, :] = 0.0
|
||||||
|
mat_7x7[6, 6] = 100.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# D 행
|
# Step 5: Convert to probability and normalize
|
||||||
mat[7, :] = 0.0
|
mat_7x7 /= 100.0
|
||||||
mat[7, 7] = 100.0
|
for i in range(7):
|
||||||
|
s = mat_7x7[i].sum()
|
||||||
# → 확률, 행합 정규화
|
|
||||||
mat /= 100.0
|
|
||||||
for i in range(8):
|
|
||||||
s = mat[i].sum()
|
|
||||||
if s > 0:
|
if s > 0:
|
||||||
mat[i] /= s
|
mat_7x7[i] /= s
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return mat
|
return mat_7x7
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
def _extrapolate_ccc(mat: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
|
||||||
"""CCC 행/열 extrapolation from B이하 PD 패턴"""
|
|
||||||
pd_bb = mat[4, 7]
|
|
||||||
pd_b = mat[5, 7]
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# CCC PD
|
|
||||||
if pd_bb > 0 and pd_b > pd_bb:
|
|
||||||
ratio = pd_b / pd_bb
|
|
||||||
else:
|
|
||||||
ratio = 2.5
|
|
||||||
pd_ccc = min(pd_b * ratio, 60.0)
|
|
||||||
pd_ccc = max(pd_ccc, pd_b * 1.5)
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# Stay rates
|
|
||||||
stay_bb = mat[4, 4]
|
|
||||||
stay_b = mat[5, 5]
|
|
||||||
stay_ratio = (stay_b / stay_bb) if (stay_bb > 0 and stay_b < stay_bb) else 0.7
|
|
||||||
stay_ccc = max(stay_b * stay_ratio, 5.0)
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
upgrade_to_b = mat[5, 4] * 0.8 if mat[5, 4] > 0 else 2.0
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# CCC 행
|
|
||||||
mat[6, :] = [0, 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, upgrade_to_b, stay_ccc, pd_ccc]
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
ccc_sum = mat[6].sum()
|
|
||||||
if ccc_sum > 100:
|
|
||||||
mat[6, 6] = max(mat[6, 6] - (ccc_sum - 100), 1.0)
|
|
||||||
elif ccc_sum < 100:
|
|
||||||
mat[6, 6] += (100 - ccc_sum)
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# CCC 열: B→CCC, BB→CCC, BBB→CCC 전이 분리
|
|
||||||
b_to_ccc = mat[5, 5] * 0.15
|
|
||||||
mat[5, 6] = b_to_ccc
|
|
||||||
mat[5, 5] -= b_to_ccc
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
bb_to_ccc = mat[4, 5] * 0.1 if mat[4, 5] > 0 else 0.5
|
|
||||||
mat[4, 6] = bb_to_ccc
|
|
||||||
mat[4, 5] = max(mat[4, 5] - bb_to_ccc, 0)
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
mat[3, 6] = 0.3
|
|
||||||
mat[3, 5] = max(mat[3, 5] - 0.15, 0)
|
|
||||||
mat[3, 3] = max(mat[3, 3] - 0.15, 0)
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return mat
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# ============================================================
|
# ============================================================
|
||||||
@@ -549,6 +535,17 @@ def _extrapolate_ccc(mat: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
|||||||
def main():
|
def main():
|
||||||
OUTPUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
OUTPUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Load PD floors
|
||||||
|
broad_floors = None
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
import sys as _sys
|
||||||
|
_sys.path.insert(0, str(BASE_DIR))
|
||||||
|
from data.pd_floor import build_complete_pd_floor_table
|
||||||
|
broad_floors, _, _ = build_complete_pd_floor_table()
|
||||||
|
print(f" PD floor loaded: {', '.join(f'{g}={v*10000:.1f}bp' for g, v in broad_floors.items())}")
|
||||||
|
except Exception as e:
|
||||||
|
print(f" PD floor load failed ({e}), proceeding without floor")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
all_matrices = {}
|
all_matrices = {}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for agency, pdf_path in PDF_FILES.items():
|
for agency, pdf_path in PDF_FILES.items():
|
||||||
@@ -582,7 +579,7 @@ def main():
|
|||||||
processed = {}
|
processed = {}
|
||||||
for year, raw_mat in sorted(raw.items()):
|
for year, raw_mat in sorted(raw.items()):
|
||||||
try:
|
try:
|
||||||
processed[year] = postprocess_matrix(raw_mat)
|
processed[year] = postprocess_matrix(raw_mat, pd_floors=broad_floors)
|
||||||
except Exception as e:
|
except Exception as e:
|
||||||
print(f" ERROR {year}: {e}")
|
print(f" ERROR {year}: {e}")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
@@ -590,7 +587,7 @@ def main():
|
|||||||
print(f" Processed {len(processed)} matrices")
|
print(f" Processed {len(processed)} matrices")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for year, mat in processed.items():
|
for year, mat in processed.items():
|
||||||
df = pd.DataFrame(mat, index=MODEL_GRADES, columns=MODEL_GRADES)
|
df = pd.DataFrame(mat, index=MODEL_GRADES_7, columns=MODEL_GRADES_7)
|
||||||
df.to_csv(OUTPUT_DIR / f"{agency}_{year}.csv", float_format="%.6f")
|
df.to_csv(OUTPUT_DIR / f"{agency}_{year}.csv", float_format="%.6f")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# 3사 평균
|
# 3사 평균
|
||||||
@@ -609,11 +606,11 @@ def main():
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
for year in common_years:
|
for year in common_years:
|
||||||
avg = np.mean([all_matrices[a][year] for a in agency_names], axis=0)
|
avg = np.mean([all_matrices[a][year] for a in agency_names], axis=0)
|
||||||
for i in range(8):
|
for i in range(7):
|
||||||
s = avg[i].sum()
|
s = avg[i].sum()
|
||||||
if s > 0:
|
if s > 0:
|
||||||
avg[i] /= s
|
avg[i] /= s
|
||||||
df = pd.DataFrame(avg, index=MODEL_GRADES, columns=MODEL_GRADES)
|
df = pd.DataFrame(avg, index=MODEL_GRADES_7, columns=MODEL_GRADES_7)
|
||||||
df.to_csv(OUTPUT_DIR / f"AVG_{year}.csv", float_format="%.6f")
|
df.to_csv(OUTPUT_DIR / f"AVG_{year}.csv", float_format="%.6f")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# PD 요약
|
# PD 요약
|
||||||
@@ -632,7 +629,7 @@ def main():
|
|||||||
if sample_year not in common_years and not any(sample_year in all_matrices[a] for a in agency_names):
|
if sample_year not in common_years and not any(sample_year in all_matrices[a] for a in agency_names):
|
||||||
continue
|
continue
|
||||||
print(f"\n Year {sample_year}:")
|
print(f"\n Year {sample_year}:")
|
||||||
for gi, grade in enumerate(MODEL_GRADES[:-1]):
|
for gi, grade in enumerate(MODEL_GRADES_7[:-1]):
|
||||||
print(f" {grade:>5}:", end='')
|
print(f" {grade:>5}:", end='')
|
||||||
for a in agency_names:
|
for a in agency_names:
|
||||||
if sample_year in all_matrices[a]:
|
if sample_year in all_matrices[a]:
|
||||||
|
|||||||
427
data/pd_floor.py
Normal file
427
data/pd_floor.py
Normal file
@@ -0,0 +1,427 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
시장 YTM 기반 PD 플로어 산출 모듈
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
KAP(한국자산평가) 등급별 회사채 수익률에서 신용스프레드를 추출하고,
|
||||||
|
시장 내재 부도율(PD)을 산출한 뒤, AAA=5bp 앵커링 + 로그 스케일링으로
|
||||||
|
각 등급의 PD 플로어를 결정합니다.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
핵심 공식:
|
||||||
|
PD_raw = spread / (1 - recovery_rate) [LGD = 1 - RR]
|
||||||
|
scale = log(anchor_AAA) / log(PD_raw_AAA)
|
||||||
|
PD_floor(g) = exp(log(PD_raw(g)) × scale)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
참고:
|
||||||
|
- Basel III CRE30.4: 기업 PD 플로어 5bp (0.05%)
|
||||||
|
- 한국 시장 회수율: 약 40% (LGD = 60%)
|
||||||
|
- docs/pd_floor_reference.md 참조
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import logging
|
||||||
|
from typing import Dict, Optional, Tuple, List
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 기본 파라미터
|
||||||
|
DEFAULT_RECOVERY_RATE = 0.40 # 회수율 40% → LGD 60%
|
||||||
|
DEFAULT_AAA_ANCHOR = 0.0005 # 5bp = 0.05% = 0.0005
|
||||||
|
DEFAULT_LGD = 1 - DEFAULT_RECOVERY_RATE # 0.60
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 대등급 순서 (인덱스 기반 외삽에 사용)
|
||||||
|
BROAD_GRADE_ORDER = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B"]
|
||||||
|
BROAD_GRADE_INDEX = {g: i for i, g in enumerate(BROAD_GRADE_ORDER)}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def compute_market_implied_pd(
|
||||||
|
spread_bp: float,
|
||||||
|
lgd: float = DEFAULT_LGD
|
||||||
|
) -> float:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
신용스프레드에서 시장 내재 PD 산출
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PD ≈ spread / LGD
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
spread_bp : float
|
||||||
|
신용스프레드 (bp, 1bp = 0.01%)
|
||||||
|
lgd : float
|
||||||
|
Loss Given Default (기본: 0.60)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
float
|
||||||
|
시장 내재 PD (소수, 예: 0.000727 = 7.27bp)
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
spread_decimal = spread_bp / 10000 # bp → 소수
|
||||||
|
return spread_decimal / lgd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def compute_pd_floors(
|
||||||
|
spreads_bp: Dict[str, float],
|
||||||
|
anchor_aaa: float = DEFAULT_AAA_ANCHOR,
|
||||||
|
lgd: float = DEFAULT_LGD
|
||||||
|
) -> Dict[str, float]:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
AAA=5bp 앵커링 + 로그 스케일링으로 등급별 PD 플로어 산출
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
spreads_bp : Dict[str, float]
|
||||||
|
등급별 신용스프레드 (bp). 대등급(AAA, AA, A, BBB) 기준.
|
||||||
|
anchor_aaa : float
|
||||||
|
AAA 앵커 PD (기본: 5bp = 0.0005)
|
||||||
|
lgd : float
|
||||||
|
Loss Given Default (기본: 0.60)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
Dict[str, float]
|
||||||
|
등급별 PD 플로어 (소수). 예: {'AAA': 0.0005, 'AA': 0.00057, ...}
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
# Step 1: 시장 내재 PD 산출
|
||||||
|
pd_raw = {}
|
||||||
|
for grade, spread in spreads_bp.items():
|
||||||
|
pd_raw[grade] = compute_market_implied_pd(spread, lgd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if "AAA" not in pd_raw or pd_raw["AAA"] <= 0:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError("AAA 스프레드가 0 이하입니다. 데이터를 확인하세요.")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Step 2: 로그 스케일링
|
||||||
|
# scale = log(anchor) / log(pd_raw_AAA)
|
||||||
|
log_anchor = np.log(anchor_aaa)
|
||||||
|
log_aaa_raw = np.log(pd_raw["AAA"])
|
||||||
|
scale = log_anchor / log_aaa_raw
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pd_floors = {}
|
||||||
|
for grade, pd_val in pd_raw.items():
|
||||||
|
pd_floors[grade] = np.exp(np.log(pd_val) * scale)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
logger.info(f"PD 플로어 스케일링: scale={scale:.4f}, "
|
||||||
|
f"AAA raw={pd_raw['AAA']*10000:.1f}bp → floor={pd_floors['AAA']*10000:.1f}bp")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return pd_floors
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# ============================================================
|
||||||
|
# 기본 PD 플로어 (시장 데이터 없이 사용 가능)
|
||||||
|
# ============================================================
|
||||||
|
# 근거:
|
||||||
|
# AAA = 5bp : Basel III CRE30.4 규제 플로어 (2023 개정, 기업 IRB)
|
||||||
|
# AA = 5bp : Basel III 최저선 + S&P 장기평균 2bp + Moody's 5bp 중간값
|
||||||
|
# A = 7bp : S&P 장기평균 5bp + Moody's 9bp 중간값
|
||||||
|
# BBB = 20bp: S&P 15bp + Moody's 26bp 중간값, 한국 BBB 관측 27bp와 정합
|
||||||
|
# BB = 60bp: S&P 56~63bp 범위, 관측치 사용 (floor 불필요)
|
||||||
|
# B = 300bp: S&P 293~334bp 범위, 관측치 사용 (floor 불필요)
|
||||||
|
#
|
||||||
|
# 참고문헌:
|
||||||
|
# [1] Basel Committee, CRE30.4: "PD shall not be less than 0.05%"
|
||||||
|
# [2] S&P Global, "2023 Annual Default and Transition Study"
|
||||||
|
# [3] Moody's, "Annual Default Study" (1920-2023)
|
||||||
|
# [4] 금융감독원, 신용평가공시 (한국기업평가 1998-2025)
|
||||||
|
DEFAULT_PD_FLOORS = {
|
||||||
|
"AAA": 0.0005, # 5bp — Basel III CRE30.4
|
||||||
|
"AA": 0.0005, # 5bp — Basel III 최저선
|
||||||
|
"A": 0.0007, # 7bp — S&P/Moody's 중간값
|
||||||
|
"BBB": 0.0020, # 20bp — S&P/Moody's 중간값
|
||||||
|
"BB": 0.0060, # 60bp — 관측치 수준 (floor 미적용)
|
||||||
|
"B": 0.0300, # 300bp — 관측치 수준 (floor 미적용)
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 7×7 행렬용 (CCC 제외)
|
||||||
|
GRADES_7 = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B"]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def get_default_pd_floors() -> Dict[str, float]:
|
||||||
|
"""기본 PD 플로어 반환 (Basel III + S&P/Moody's 근거)"""
|
||||||
|
return DEFAULT_PD_FLOORS.copy()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def apply_pd_floor_to_matrices(
|
||||||
|
matrices: Dict[int, 'np.ndarray'],
|
||||||
|
pd_floors: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None,
|
||||||
|
grades: Optional[List[str]] = None
|
||||||
|
) -> Dict[int, 'np.ndarray']:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
전이행렬의 D열(부도 전이확률)에 PD 플로어 적용
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
로직:
|
||||||
|
1. 각 등급의 TM[i, D] < floor[i] 이면
|
||||||
|
2. TM[i, D] = floor[i] 로 상향
|
||||||
|
3. 초과분(delta)을 TM[i, i] (대각선)에서 차감
|
||||||
|
4. 행 합 = 1.0 유지
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
이론적 근거:
|
||||||
|
- 한국 투자적격등급(AAA~A) 부도 관측치 = 0%
|
||||||
|
- 0%는 "위험 없음"이 아니라 "관측 불가능한 확률"
|
||||||
|
- Basel III CRE30.4: 기업 PD ≥ 5bp (0.05%)
|
||||||
|
- S&P/Moody's 글로벌 장기평균으로 보정
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
matrices : Dict[int, np.ndarray]
|
||||||
|
연도별 전이행렬 (N×N, 마지막 열 = D)
|
||||||
|
pd_floors : Dict[str, float], optional
|
||||||
|
등급별 최소 PD (기본: DEFAULT_PD_FLOORS)
|
||||||
|
grades : List[str], optional
|
||||||
|
등급 레이블 (기본: AAA~B for 7×7)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
Dict[int, np.ndarray]
|
||||||
|
PD 플로어 적용된 전이행렬 (새 복사본)
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
if pd_floors is None:
|
||||||
|
pd_floors = DEFAULT_PD_FLOORS
|
||||||
|
if grades is None:
|
||||||
|
grades = GRADES_7
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
calibrated = {}
|
||||||
|
for year, tm in matrices.items():
|
||||||
|
tm_new = tm.copy()
|
||||||
|
n = tm_new.shape[0]
|
||||||
|
d_col = n - 1 # 마지막 열 = D
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n - 1): # D행은 제외 (흡수상태)
|
||||||
|
grade = grades[i] if i < len(grades) else None
|
||||||
|
if grade and grade in pd_floors:
|
||||||
|
floor = pd_floors[grade]
|
||||||
|
observed_pd = tm_new[i, d_col]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if observed_pd < floor:
|
||||||
|
delta = floor - observed_pd
|
||||||
|
tm_new[i, d_col] = floor
|
||||||
|
# 대각선(유지확률)에서 차감
|
||||||
|
tm_new[i, i] = max(tm_new[i, i] - delta, 0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 행 합 재정규화 (안전장치)
|
||||||
|
row_sum = tm_new[i].sum()
|
||||||
|
if row_sum > 0:
|
||||||
|
tm_new[i] /= row_sum
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
calibrated[year] = tm_new
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
logger.info(f"PD 플로어 적용 완료: {len(calibrated)}개 연도")
|
||||||
|
return calibrated
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def extrapolate_speculative_grades(
|
||||||
|
pd_floors: Dict[str, float],
|
||||||
|
grades_to_extrapolate: List[str] = ["BB", "B"]
|
||||||
|
) -> Dict[str, float]:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
투자적격등급(AAA~BBB)의 로그 트렌드를 외삽하여 투기등급 PD 산출
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
log(PD) vs grade_index의 선형 트렌드를 BBB 이후로 연장합니다.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
pd_floors : Dict[str, float]
|
||||||
|
투자적격등급 PD 플로어 (AAA~BBB)
|
||||||
|
grades_to_extrapolate : List[str]
|
||||||
|
외삽할 등급 (기본: ["BB", "B"])
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
Dict[str, float]
|
||||||
|
투기등급이 추가된 PD 플로어
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
# 기존 투자적격 등급의 log(PD) vs index 관계
|
||||||
|
available = []
|
||||||
|
for g in BROAD_GRADE_ORDER:
|
||||||
|
if g in pd_floors:
|
||||||
|
available.append((BROAD_GRADE_INDEX[g], np.log(pd_floors[g])))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if len(available) < 2:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError("외삽을 위해 최소 2개 등급의 PD가 필요합니다.")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 선형 회귀: log(PD) = a × index + b
|
||||||
|
x = np.array([a[0] for a in available])
|
||||||
|
y = np.array([a[1] for a in available])
|
||||||
|
coeffs = np.polyfit(x, y, 1) # [기울기, 절편]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
result = pd_floors.copy()
|
||||||
|
for grade in grades_to_extrapolate:
|
||||||
|
if grade in BROAD_GRADE_INDEX:
|
||||||
|
idx = BROAD_GRADE_INDEX[grade]
|
||||||
|
log_pd = coeffs[0] * idx + coeffs[1]
|
||||||
|
result[grade] = np.exp(log_pd)
|
||||||
|
logger.info(f"외삽 PD [{grade}]: {result[grade]*10000:.1f}bp "
|
||||||
|
f"(index={idx}, log_pd={log_pd:.4f})")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return result
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def interpolate_ccc_pd(
|
||||||
|
pd_b: float,
|
||||||
|
pd_d: float = 1.0,
|
||||||
|
method: str = "geometric"
|
||||||
|
) -> Dict[str, float]:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
B와 D(=100%) 사이를 보간하여 CCC/CC/C 등급 PD 산출
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
pd_b : float
|
||||||
|
B등급 PD (소수)
|
||||||
|
pd_d : float
|
||||||
|
D등급 PD (기본: 1.0 = 100%)
|
||||||
|
method : str
|
||||||
|
'geometric': 기하평균
|
||||||
|
'log': 로그 등간격 보간
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
Dict[str, float]
|
||||||
|
{'CCC': ..., 'CC': ..., 'C': ...}
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
if method == "geometric":
|
||||||
|
# B → CCC → CC → C → D 순서로 기하적 등간격
|
||||||
|
# 4개 구간 (B→CCC, CCC→CC, CC→C, C→D)
|
||||||
|
log_b = np.log(pd_b)
|
||||||
|
log_d = np.log(pd_d)
|
||||||
|
step = (log_d - log_b) / 4
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ccc_pd = np.exp(log_b + step * 1)
|
||||||
|
cc_pd = np.exp(log_b + step * 2)
|
||||||
|
c_pd = np.exp(log_b + step * 3)
|
||||||
|
else: # log-linear
|
||||||
|
log_b = np.log(pd_b)
|
||||||
|
log_d = np.log(pd_d)
|
||||||
|
step = (log_d - log_b) / 4
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ccc_pd = np.exp(log_b + step * 1)
|
||||||
|
cc_pd = np.exp(log_b + step * 2)
|
||||||
|
c_pd = np.exp(log_b + step * 3)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return {"CCC": ccc_pd, "CC": cc_pd, "C": c_pd}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def compute_notch_pd_ratios(
|
||||||
|
notch_spreads: Dict[str, float],
|
||||||
|
lgd: float = DEFAULT_LGD
|
||||||
|
) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
노치등급 간 PD 비율 산출 (나중에 등급 쪼개기에 사용)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
예: AA+ : AA : AA- = 0.91 : 1.00 : 1.07 (AA 대비 비율)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
notch_spreads : Dict[str, float]
|
||||||
|
노치등급별 스프레드 (bp)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]
|
||||||
|
대등급별 {노치등급: 비율} 딕셔너리
|
||||||
|
예: {'AA': {'AA+': 0.91, 'AA': 1.00, 'AA-': 1.07}}
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from data.ytm_fetcher import NOTCH_TO_BROAD
|
||||||
|
from collections import defaultdict
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 대등급별 노치 그룹핑
|
||||||
|
groups = defaultdict(dict)
|
||||||
|
for notch, spread in notch_spreads.items():
|
||||||
|
broad = NOTCH_TO_BROAD.get(notch, notch)
|
||||||
|
groups[broad][notch] = compute_market_implied_pd(spread, lgd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 중간 노치 대비 비율 계산
|
||||||
|
ratios = {}
|
||||||
|
for broad, notch_pds in groups.items():
|
||||||
|
if len(notch_pds) == 1:
|
||||||
|
key = list(notch_pds.keys())[0]
|
||||||
|
ratios[broad] = {key: 1.0}
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
# 중간 노치(plain) 기준
|
||||||
|
mid_key = broad # AA+ → AA가 중간
|
||||||
|
if mid_key in notch_pds:
|
||||||
|
mid_pd = notch_pds[mid_key]
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
mid_pd = sorted(notch_pds.values())[len(notch_pds) // 2]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ratios[broad] = {
|
||||||
|
notch: pd / mid_pd for notch, pd in notch_pds.items()
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return ratios
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def build_complete_pd_floor_table(
|
||||||
|
date: str = "2025-12-31",
|
||||||
|
anchor_aaa: float = DEFAULT_AAA_ANCHOR,
|
||||||
|
recovery_rate: float = DEFAULT_RECOVERY_RATE
|
||||||
|
) -> Tuple[Dict[str, float], Dict[str, float], Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]]:
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
전체 PD 플로어 테이블 생성 (원스톱)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Parameters
|
||||||
|
----------
|
||||||
|
date : str
|
||||||
|
YTM 기준일
|
||||||
|
anchor_aaa : float
|
||||||
|
AAA 앵커 PD (기본: 5bp)
|
||||||
|
recovery_rate : float
|
||||||
|
회수율 (기본: 0.40)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns
|
||||||
|
-------
|
||||||
|
Tuple of:
|
||||||
|
broad_floors : Dict[str, float] - 대등급 PD 플로어 (AAA~B+D)
|
||||||
|
notch_ratios : Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] - 노치 비율
|
||||||
|
full_floors : Dict[str, float] - CCC/CC/C 포함 전체 PD (AAA~C+D)
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from data.ytm_fetcher import get_ytm_data, compute_spreads, compute_broad_grade_spreads
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
lgd = 1 - recovery_rate
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 1) YTM 데이터 수집
|
||||||
|
ytm_data = get_ytm_data(date)
|
||||||
|
notch_spreads = compute_spreads(ytm_data)
|
||||||
|
broad_spreads = compute_broad_grade_spreads(notch_spreads)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
logger.info(f"대등급 스프레드: {broad_spreads}")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 2) PD 플로어 산출 (투자적격)
|
||||||
|
pd_floors = compute_pd_floors(broad_spreads, anchor_aaa, lgd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 3) 투기등급 외삽
|
||||||
|
pd_floors = extrapolate_speculative_grades(pd_floors, ["BB", "B"])
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 4) CCC/CC/C 보간
|
||||||
|
ccc_pds = interpolate_ccc_pd(pd_floors["B"], pd_d=1.0, method="geometric")
|
||||||
|
full_floors = {**pd_floors, **ccc_pds, "D": 1.0}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 5) 노치 비율
|
||||||
|
notch_ratios = compute_notch_pd_ratios(notch_spreads, lgd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return pd_floors, notch_ratios, full_floors
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(message)s")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("=" * 60)
|
||||||
|
print(" PD 플로어 산출 (KAP YTM 기반)")
|
||||||
|
print("=" * 60)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
broad_floors, notch_ratios, full_floors = build_complete_pd_floor_table()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("\n=== 대등급 PD 플로어 ===")
|
||||||
|
for grade in BROAD_GRADE_ORDER:
|
||||||
|
if grade in broad_floors:
|
||||||
|
print(f" {grade:>4}: {broad_floors[grade]*10000:8.1f}bp "
|
||||||
|
f"({broad_floors[grade]*100:.4f}%)")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("\n=== 전체 PD 플로어 (CCC/CC/C 포함) ===")
|
||||||
|
order = ["AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", "BB", "B", "CCC", "CC", "C", "D"]
|
||||||
|
for grade in order:
|
||||||
|
if grade in full_floors:
|
||||||
|
print(f" {grade:>4}: {full_floors[grade]*10000:8.1f}bp "
|
||||||
|
f"({full_floors[grade]*100:.4f}%)")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("\n=== 노치 PD 비율 ===")
|
||||||
|
for broad, ratios in notch_ratios.items():
|
||||||
|
print(f" {broad}:")
|
||||||
|
for notch, ratio in sorted(ratios.items()):
|
||||||
|
print(f" {notch:>5}: ×{ratio:.3f}")
|
||||||
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,0.576715,0.338615,0.084670,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.000000,0.559352,0.440648,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.017544,0.699909,0.207912,0.071635,0.003000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.068283,0.515874,0.244982,0.027220,0.143640
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.044442,0.476959,0.084169,0.394430
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.048887,0.353468,0.591645
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,0.833333,0.166667,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,0.933333,0.066667,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.061773,0.737460,0.117262,0.000000,0.083505,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.062378,0.797521,0.062053,0.075048,0.003000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.134711,0.796350,0.062045,0.006894,0.000000
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.023801,0.090450,0.592972,0.104642,0.188136
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.079026,0.452999,0.461975
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.014493,0.971014,0.014493,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.122075,0.817172,0.047406,0.013347,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.057296,0.883453,0.056255,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.075517,0.858165,0.028252,0.004798,0.033268
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.115489,0.671687,0.118533,0.094291
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.092391,0.622554,0.279054
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.061444,0.893772,0.030291,0.014493,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.101044,0.861655,0.037302,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.068367,0.846477,0.060342,0.010752,0.003000,0.011062
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.062964,0.847031,0.037988,0.004221,0.047796
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.160363,0.561351,0.099062,0.179224
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.128291,0.406102,0.459608
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.076355,0.852232,0.071413,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.114891,0.872030,0.013079,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.047703,0.911130,0.038171,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.094675,0.725113,0.119048,0.013228,0.047937
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.080869,0.599699,0.105829,0.213603
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.071361,0.374766,0.547872
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.085849,0.800426,0.113725,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.026047,0.910271,0.049112,0.000000,0.014570,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.078127,0.898498,0.020379,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.011905,0.073811,0.735706,0.115708,0.012856,0.050014
|
|
||||||
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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||||||
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,0.997390,0.002610,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,0.500000,0.500000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
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|
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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|
||||||
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
||||||
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|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
||||||
AAA,0.983845,0.016155,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
||||||
AAA,0.981782,0.018218,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
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AAA,0.983300,0.016700,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
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|
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
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AAA,0.985975,0.014025,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,0.995674,0.004326,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
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|
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AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
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|
||||||
AA,0.000000,0.979069,0.020931,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.018528,0.962943,0.018528,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.997004,0.000000,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.995025,0.000000,0.004975,0.000000
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.807480,0.142497,0.050023
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.020000,0.848943,0.125057
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,0.979069,0.020931,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.019653,0.980347,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.997004,0.000000,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.931002,0.062098,0.006900,0.000000
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.050023,0.807480,0.142497,0.000000
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.040018,0.953982,0.000000
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,0.986929,0.013071,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.026304,0.973696,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.099839,0.897165,0.000000,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.019561,0.941203,0.035312,0.003924,0.000000
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.796875,0.140625,0.062500
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.020000,0.817750,0.156250
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,0.969200,0.030800,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.013008,0.980487,0.006504,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.000000,0.991400,0.000000,0.000000,0.008600,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.055539,0.941465,0.000000,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.878839,0.054522,0.006058,0.060580
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.850000,0.150000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.020000,0.974000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,0.993518,0.006482,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.008584,0.982833,0.008584,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.997004,0.000000,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.057159,0.885682,0.051443,0.005716,0.000000
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.765022,0.135004,0.099974
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.020000,0.724065,0.249935
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,0.996497,0.003503,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.007287,0.972014,0.020699,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.000000,0.991024,0.008976,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.095137,0.901867,0.000000,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.851908,0.133283,0.014809,0.000000
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.850000,0.150000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.020000,0.974000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,0.285700,0.571400,0.142900,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.000000,0.541681,0.458319,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.720695,0.222195,0.054110,0.003000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.047639,0.333333,0.342875,0.038097,0.238056
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.133325,0.510020,0.090004,0.266651
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.106660,0.487364,0.399976
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.085133,0.702091,0.127642,0.000000,0.085133,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.067750,0.812098,0.050902,0.066250,0.003000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.125050,0.833222,0.037555,0.004173,0.000000
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.199946,0.595011,0.105002,0.100041
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.159957,0.583942,0.250101
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.127669,0.829738,0.042593,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.035692,0.913724,0.047589,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.048942,0.913456,0.000000,0.004975,0.032628
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.105242,0.671089,0.118428,0.105242
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.084193,0.572036,0.337771
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.043478,0.913043,0.000000,0.043478,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.131585,0.842073,0.026342,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.123296,0.792921,0.068526,0.012256,0.003000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.017244,0.844808,0.062077,0.006897,0.068974
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.222274,0.566667,0.100000,0.111059
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.177819,0.637358,0.178823
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.038518,0.961482,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.125030,0.874970,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.034400,0.911004,0.051601,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.087637,0.719335,0.110539,0.012282,0.070207
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.117606,0.600028,0.105887,0.176479
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.094084,0.456299,0.443617
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.033330,0.866681,0.099989,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.000000,0.926796,0.048768,0.000000,0.024436,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.086029,0.876515,0.034461,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.057120,0.800000,0.102816,0.011424,0.028640
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.765000,0.135000,0.100000
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.020000,0.624838,0.349162
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
,AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,D
|
|
||||||
AAA,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
AA,0.099974,0.849974,0.050052,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
A,0.000000,0.079973,0.880040,0.039987,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BBB,0.000000,0.000000,0.172859,0.785746,0.038399,0.000000,0.002996,0.000000
|
|
||||||
BB,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.199970,0.650015,0.044959,0.004995,0.100060
|
|
||||||
B,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.071474,0.000000,0.607096,0.107135,0.214295
|
|
||||||
CCC,0.000000,0.000000,0.001000,0.002000,0.003000,0.020000,0.515052,0.458948
|
|
||||||
D,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000
|
|
||||||
|
Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More
Reference in New Issue
Block a user