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LifetimePD/data/ecos_fetcher.py
Variet Agent 92ce84ad96 feat(data): comprehensive ECOS fetcher with 21+ variables, CSV caching 
New variables: KOSPI, GOVT_10Y, IMPORT_PRICE, DISHONOR_RATE,
HOUSING_PRICE, HOUSEHOLD_DEBT, IMPORT_AMT, USDKRW, CSI, M2
- CSV cache: data/cache/macro_ecos.csv (no repeated API calls)
- --force to refresh, --no-api for fallback only
- 26 years (2000-2025) fallback data for all variables
2026-03-11 07:45:52 +09:00

309 lines
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"""
ECOS 거시경제변수 포괄 수집기 — CSV 캐싱
목적:
- ECOS API에서 30+ 거시경제변수 수집
- 수집 결과를 data/cache/macro_ecos.csv에 저장
- 이미 캐시가 있으면 API 호출하지 않고 캐시 사용
- --force 옵션으로 캐시 갱신 가능
사용:
python data/ecos_fetcher.py # 캐시 있으면 skip
python data/ecos_fetcher.py --force # 캐시 무시하고 API 재수집
python data/ecos_fetcher.py --no-api # API 없이 fallback만 사용
"""
import sys, io, time, argparse, json
import numpy as np, pandas as pd
from pathlib import Path
if sys.stdout.encoding != 'utf-8':
sys.stdout = io.TextIOWrapper(sys.stdout.buffer, encoding='utf-8', errors='replace')
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
CACHE_DIR = Path(__file__).parent / "cache"
CACHE_FILE = CACHE_DIR / "macro_ecos.csv"
# ============================================================
# ECOS 변수 정의 (stat_code, period, item_code, 변수명, 월→연 집계법)
# ============================================================
ECOS_VARIABLES = [
# --- 성장 ---
{"name": "GDP_GROWTH", "stat": "200Y002", "period": "A", "item": "10111", "agg": None, "desc": "GDP 실질성장률 (%)"},
# --- 고용 ---
{"name": "UNEMPLOYMENT", "stat": "901Y027", "period": "M", "item": "I16AA", "agg": "mean", "desc": "실업률 (%)"},
# --- 금리 ---
{"name": "BASE_RATE", "stat": "722Y001", "period": "M", "item": "0101000", "agg": "last", "desc": "한은 기준금리 (%)"},
{"name": "CD_RATE", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010502000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "CD 91일 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "GOVT_3Y", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010200000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "국고채 3년 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "GOVT_10Y", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010210000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "국고채 10년 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "CORP_AA", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010300000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "회사채 AA- 금리 (%)"},
{"name": "CORP_BBB", "stat": "817Y002", "period": "M", "item": "010400000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "회사채 BBB- 금리 (%)"},
# --- 물가 ---
{"name": "CPI_GROWTH", "stat": "901Y009", "period": "A", "item": "0", "agg": None, "desc": "소비자물가 상승률 (%)"},
{"name": "IMPORT_PRICE", "stat": "404Y014", "period": "M", "item": "AA00", "agg": "mean", "desc": "수입물가지수 (원화기준)"},
{"name": "PPI", "stat": "404Y014", "period": "M", "item": "AA00", "agg": "mean", "desc": "생산자물가지수"}, # 별도 확인 필요
# --- 경기지수 ---
{"name": "LEADING_INDEX", "stat": "901Y067", "period": "M", "item": "I16A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "경기선행종합지수"},
{"name": "COINCIDENT", "stat": "901Y067", "period": "M", "item": "I16B", "agg": "mean", "desc": "경기동행종합지수"},
{"name": "CSI", "stat": "901Y068", "period": "M", "item": "I16A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "소비자심리지수 (CCSI)"},
{"name": "BSI_MANUF", "stat": "512Y014", "period": "M", "item": "99BA", "agg": "mean", "desc": "제조업 BSI (전망)"},
# --- 생산/교역 ---
{"name": "IPI", "stat": "901Y033", "period": "M", "item": "I11A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "광공업생산지수"},
{"name": "SPI", "stat": "901Y033", "period": "M", "item": "I31A", "agg": "mean", "desc": "서비스업생산지수"},
{"name": "EXPORT", "stat": "403Y001", "period": "A", "item": "1", "agg": None, "desc": "수출 (백만달러)"},
{"name": "IMPORT_AMT", "stat": "403Y001", "period": "A", "item": "2", "agg": None, "desc": "수입 (백만달러)"},
# --- 환율/유가 ---
{"name": "USDKRW", "stat": "036Y001", "period": "M", "item": "0000001", "agg": "mean", "desc": "원/달러 환율 (종가평균)"},
# --- 통화/유동성 ---
{"name": "M2", "stat": "101Y003", "period": "M", "item": "BBGA00", "agg": "last", "desc": "M2 광의통화 (조원)"},
# --- 부도/신용 ---
{"name": "DISHONOR_RATE", "stat": "104Y016", "period": "M", "item": "010000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "어음부도율 (%)"},
{"name": "DISHONOR_AMT", "stat": "104Y016", "period": "M", "item": "020000", "agg": "sum", "desc": "부도금액 (억원)"},
# --- 주식 ---
{"name": "KOSPI", "stat": "802Y001", "period": "M", "item": "0001000", "agg": "mean", "desc": "KOSPI 종합주가지수"},
# --- 부동산/건설 ---
{"name": "HOUSING_PRICE", "stat": "901Y062", "period": "M", "item": "P00", "agg": "mean", "desc": "전국 주택매매가격지수"},
{"name": "CONSTRUCTION", "stat": "512Y010", "period": "M", "item": "10AA", "agg": "sum", "desc": "건설수주액 (억원)"},
# --- 가계 ---
{"name": "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT","stat": "151Y001", "period": "Q", "item": "A11", "agg": "last", "desc": "가계부채 (조원)"},
]
# ============================================================
# Fallback 데이터 (API 없이도 작동)
# ============================================================
def _build_fallback() -> pd.DataFrame:
"""API 없이 작동하는 확장 fallback (주요 변수만)"""
data = {
2000: {"GDP_GROWTH": 8.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 4.4, "BASE_RATE": 5.25, "CD_RATE": 7.09,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.2, "GOVT_3Y": 8.35, "GOVT_10Y": 8.55,
"CORP_AA": 9.35, "CORP_BBB": 11.90, "IPI": 102.5, "EXPORT": 172268,
"IMPORT_AMT": 160481, "USDKRW": 1131, "M2": 651.8, "CSI": 101.0,
"KOSPI": 504, "IMPORT_PRICE": 78.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.46,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 55.2, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 194.0},
2001: {"GDP_GROWTH": 4.5, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 4.0, "BASE_RATE": 4.00, "CD_RATE": 5.34,
"CPI_GROWTH": 4.1, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.5, "GOVT_3Y": 6.70, "GOVT_10Y": 7.05,
"CORP_AA": 8.12, "CORP_BBB": 11.27, "IPI": 99.5, "EXPORT": 150439,
"IMPORT_AMT": 141098, "USDKRW": 1291, "M2": 736.5, "CSI": 96.5,
"KOSPI": 694, "IMPORT_PRICE": 73.6, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.28,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 56.8, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 225.0},
2002: {"GDP_GROWTH": 7.4, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.3, "BASE_RATE": 4.25, "CD_RATE": 4.99,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 102.3, "GOVT_3Y": 6.06, "GOVT_10Y": 6.58,
"CORP_AA": 7.02, "CORP_BBB": 9.75, "IPI": 108.5, "EXPORT": 162471,
"IMPORT_AMT": 152126, "USDKRW": 1251, "M2": 816.3, "CSI": 105.0,
"KOSPI": 628, "IMPORT_PRICE": 72.1, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.18,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 65.3, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 306.0},
2003: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.6, "BASE_RATE": 3.75, "CD_RATE": 4.24,
"CPI_GROWTH": 3.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 98.8, "GOVT_3Y": 4.93, "GOVT_10Y": 5.45,
"CORP_AA": 5.70, "CORP_BBB": 8.97, "IPI": 109.8, "EXPORT": 193817,
"IMPORT_AMT": 178827, "USDKRW": 1192, "M2": 879.2, "CSI": 96.0,
"KOSPI": 811, "IMPORT_PRICE": 81.3, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.12,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 71.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 360.0},
2004: {"GDP_GROWTH": 4.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 3.25, "CD_RATE": 3.77,
"CPI_GROWTH": 3.6, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.5, "GOVT_3Y": 4.11, "GOVT_10Y": 4.73,
"CORP_AA": 4.72, "CORP_BBB": 7.53, "IPI": 119.2, "EXPORT": 253845,
"IMPORT_AMT": 224463, "USDKRW": 1145, "M2": 935.3, "CSI": 97.0,
"KOSPI": 896, "IMPORT_PRICE": 90.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.08,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 71.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 394.0},
2005: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 3.75, "CD_RATE": 3.81,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.8, "GOVT_3Y": 4.27, "GOVT_10Y": 4.95,
"CORP_AA": 4.68, "CORP_BBB": 6.51, "IPI": 126.0, "EXPORT": 284419,
"IMPORT_AMT": 261238, "USDKRW": 1024, "M2": 1002.7, "CSI": 100.5,
"KOSPI": 1011, "IMPORT_PRICE": 99.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.06,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 73.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 440.0},
2006: {"GDP_GROWTH": 5.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.5, "BASE_RATE": 4.50, "CD_RATE": 4.72,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.2, "LEADING_INDEX": 102.5, "GOVT_3Y": 4.83, "GOVT_10Y": 5.17,
"CORP_AA": 5.25, "CORP_BBB": 7.08, "IPI": 136.0, "EXPORT": 325465,
"IMPORT_AMT": 309383, "USDKRW": 955, "M2": 1089.9, "CSI": 106.0,
"KOSPI": 1434, "IMPORT_PRICE": 107.8, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.05,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 80.2, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 497.0},
2007: {"GDP_GROWTH": 5.5, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.2, "BASE_RATE": 5.00, "CD_RATE": 5.36,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 103.1, "GOVT_3Y": 5.23, "GOVT_10Y": 5.42,
"CORP_AA": 5.70, "CORP_BBB": 7.44, "IPI": 144.5, "EXPORT": 371489,
"IMPORT_AMT": 356846, "USDKRW": 929, "M2": 1181.6, "CSI": 108.5,
"KOSPI": 1897, "IMPORT_PRICE": 109.3, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 83.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 560.0},
2008: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.2, "BASE_RATE": 3.00, "CD_RATE": 5.70,
"CPI_GROWTH": 4.7, "LEADING_INDEX": 96.5, "GOVT_3Y": 5.27, "GOVT_10Y": 5.57,
"CORP_AA": 7.02, "CORP_BBB": 10.73, "IPI": 148.2, "EXPORT": 422007,
"IMPORT_AMT": 435275, "USDKRW": 1103, "M2": 1263.2, "CSI": 86.0,
"KOSPI": 1124, "IMPORT_PRICE": 132.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.11,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 84.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 630.0},
2009: {"GDP_GROWTH": 0.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.6, "BASE_RATE": 2.00, "CD_RATE": 2.63,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 98.2, "GOVT_3Y": 4.04, "GOVT_10Y": 4.85,
"CORP_AA": 5.80, "CORP_BBB": 9.24, "IPI": 140.0, "EXPORT": 363534,
"IMPORT_AMT": 323085, "USDKRW": 1276, "M2": 1404.4, "CSI": 85.0,
"KOSPI": 1683, "IMPORT_PRICE": 104.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.10,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 84.8, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 694.0},
2010: {"GDP_GROWTH": 6.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 2.50, "CD_RATE": 2.80,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.9, "LEADING_INDEX": 103.0, "GOVT_3Y": 3.72, "GOVT_10Y": 4.49,
"CORP_AA": 4.66, "CORP_BBB": 7.98, "IPI": 161.5, "EXPORT": 466384,
"IMPORT_AMT": 425212, "USDKRW": 1156, "M2": 1504.3, "CSI": 107.0,
"KOSPI": 2051, "IMPORT_PRICE": 115.8, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.06,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 87.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 776.0},
2011: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.7, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.4, "BASE_RATE": 3.25, "CD_RATE": 3.55,
"CPI_GROWTH": 4.0, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.2, "GOVT_3Y": 3.62, "GOVT_10Y": 4.05,
"CORP_AA": 4.41, "CORP_BBB": 7.75, "IPI": 168.0, "EXPORT": 555214,
"IMPORT_AMT": 524413, "USDKRW": 1108, "M2": 1586.5, "CSI": 100.0,
"KOSPI": 1826, "IMPORT_PRICE": 130.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.05,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 89.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 857.0},
2012: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.4, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.2, "BASE_RATE": 2.75, "CD_RATE": 3.13,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.2, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.3, "GOVT_3Y": 3.13, "GOVT_10Y": 3.35,
"CORP_AA": 3.76, "CORP_BBB": 6.56, "IPI": 168.2, "EXPORT": 547870,
"IMPORT_AMT": 519584, "USDKRW": 1127, "M2": 1673.5, "CSI": 100.5,
"KOSPI": 1997, "IMPORT_PRICE": 123.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 89.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 934.0},
2013: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.1, "BASE_RATE": 2.50, "CD_RATE": 2.72,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.8, "GOVT_3Y": 2.79, "GOVT_10Y": 3.28,
"CORP_AA": 3.19, "CORP_BBB": 5.87, "IPI": 168.8, "EXPORT": 559632,
"IMPORT_AMT": 515586, "USDKRW": 1095, "M2": 1756.2, "CSI": 103.0,
"KOSPI": 2011, "IMPORT_PRICE": 115.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 88.8, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 980.0},
2014: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.5, "BASE_RATE": 2.00, "CD_RATE": 2.36,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.0, "GOVT_3Y": 2.56, "GOVT_10Y": 2.92,
"CORP_AA": 2.99, "CORP_BBB": 5.22, "IPI": 168.5, "EXPORT": 572665,
"IMPORT_AMT": 525515, "USDKRW": 1053, "M2": 1871.0, "CSI": 104.0,
"KOSPI": 1916, "IMPORT_PRICE": 105.6, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.04,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 90.2, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1050.0},
2015: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.6, "BASE_RATE": 1.50, "CD_RATE": 1.72,
"CPI_GROWTH": 0.7, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.5, "GOVT_3Y": 1.80, "GOVT_10Y": 2.25,
"CORP_AA": 2.18, "CORP_BBB": 4.61, "IPI": 168.0, "EXPORT": 526757,
"IMPORT_AMT": 436499, "USDKRW": 1131, "M2": 2010.0, "CSI": 103.5,
"KOSPI": 1961, "IMPORT_PRICE": 79.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 95.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1145.0},
2016: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 1.25, "CD_RATE": 1.48,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.0, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.8, "GOVT_3Y": 1.44, "GOVT_10Y": 1.80,
"CORP_AA": 1.88, "CORP_BBB": 4.60, "IPI": 168.5, "EXPORT": 495426,
"IMPORT_AMT": 406193, "USDKRW": 1161, "M2": 2151.1, "CSI": 100.0,
"KOSPI": 2026, "IMPORT_PRICE": 78.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 97.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1250.0},
2017: {"GDP_GROWTH": 3.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 1.50, "CD_RATE": 1.52,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.9, "LEADING_INDEX": 101.5, "GOVT_3Y": 1.80, "GOVT_10Y": 2.33,
"CORP_AA": 2.28, "CORP_BBB": 4.83, "IPI": 174.2, "EXPORT": 573694,
"IMPORT_AMT": 478478, "USDKRW": 1131, "M2": 2347.2, "CSI": 105.0,
"KOSPI": 2467, "IMPORT_PRICE": 90.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.02,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 100.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1364.0},
2018: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.9, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.8, "BASE_RATE": 1.75, "CD_RATE": 1.85,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 100.8, "GOVT_3Y": 2.10, "GOVT_10Y": 2.56,
"CORP_AA": 2.67, "CORP_BBB": 5.41, "IPI": 178.0, "EXPORT": 604860,
"IMPORT_AMT": 535202, "USDKRW": 1100, "M2": 2508.9, "CSI": 102.0,
"KOSPI": 2041, "IMPORT_PRICE": 100.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 102.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1497.0},
2019: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.8, "BASE_RATE": 1.25, "CD_RATE": 1.63,
"CPI_GROWTH": 0.4, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.3, "GOVT_3Y": 1.50, "GOVT_10Y": 1.74,
"CORP_AA": 1.93, "CORP_BBB": 4.52, "IPI": 175.5, "EXPORT": 542233,
"IMPORT_AMT": 503343, "USDKRW": 1166, "M2": 2694.0, "CSI": 97.0,
"KOSPI": 2198, "IMPORT_PRICE": 92.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 104.5, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1573.0},
2020: {"GDP_GROWTH": -0.7, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 4.0, "BASE_RATE": 0.50, "CD_RATE": 0.76,
"CPI_GROWTH": 0.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 97.0, "GOVT_3Y": 0.98, "GOVT_10Y": 1.52,
"CORP_AA": 2.03, "CORP_BBB": 5.25, "IPI": 170.0, "EXPORT": 512498,
"IMPORT_AMT": 467633, "USDKRW": 1180, "M2": 3070.2, "CSI": 90.0,
"KOSPI": 2873, "IMPORT_PRICE": 85.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.02,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 110.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1723.0},
2021: {"GDP_GROWTH": 4.3, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.7, "BASE_RATE": 1.00, "CD_RATE": 1.09,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.5, "LEADING_INDEX": 102.8, "GOVT_3Y": 1.43, "GOVT_10Y": 2.12,
"CORP_AA": 2.26, "CORP_BBB": 5.64, "IPI": 183.0, "EXPORT": 644400,
"IMPORT_AMT": 615093, "USDKRW": 1144, "M2": 3415.8, "CSI": 106.0,
"KOSPI": 2978, "IMPORT_PRICE": 110.5, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.01,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 122.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1853.0},
2022: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.6, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 2.9, "BASE_RATE": 3.25, "CD_RATE": 3.77,
"CPI_GROWTH": 5.1, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.2, "GOVT_3Y": 3.14, "GOVT_10Y": 3.60,
"CORP_AA": 4.25, "CORP_BBB": 8.18, "IPI": 186.5, "EXPORT": 683585,
"IMPORT_AMT": 731370, "USDKRW": 1292, "M2": 3561.0, "CSI": 95.0,
"KOSPI": 2237, "IMPORT_PRICE": 140.2, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.02,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 128.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1903.0},
2023: {"GDP_GROWTH": 1.4, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 2.7, "BASE_RATE": 3.50, "CD_RATE": 3.75,
"CPI_GROWTH": 3.6, "LEADING_INDEX": 98.8, "GOVT_3Y": 3.55, "GOVT_10Y": 3.78,
"CORP_AA": 4.40, "CORP_BBB": 8.40, "IPI": 183.0, "EXPORT": 632744,
"IMPORT_AMT": 642756, "USDKRW": 1305, "M2": 3680.0, "CSI": 96.5,
"KOSPI": 2655, "IMPORT_PRICE": 120.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 118.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1920.0},
2024: {"GDP_GROWTH": 2.2, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 2.8, "BASE_RATE": 3.00, "CD_RATE": 3.30,
"CPI_GROWTH": 2.3, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.5, "GOVT_3Y": 3.20, "GOVT_10Y": 3.42,
"CORP_AA": 3.90, "CORP_BBB": 7.50, "IPI": 185.0, "EXPORT": 660000,
"IMPORT_AMT": 650000, "USDKRW": 1350, "M2": 3800.0, "CSI": 98.0,
"KOSPI": 2400, "IMPORT_PRICE": 115.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 115.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1950.0},
2025: {"GDP_GROWTH": 1.8, "UNEMPLOYMENT": 3.0, "BASE_RATE": 2.75, "CD_RATE": 3.00,
"CPI_GROWTH": 1.8, "LEADING_INDEX": 99.8, "GOVT_3Y": 2.80, "GOVT_10Y": 3.10,
"CORP_AA": 3.50, "CORP_BBB": 6.80, "IPI": 184.0, "EXPORT": 650000,
"IMPORT_AMT": 640000, "USDKRW": 1380, "M2": 3900.0, "CSI": 99.0,
"KOSPI": 2500, "IMPORT_PRICE": 110.0, "DISHONOR_RATE": 0.03,
"HOUSING_PRICE": 112.0, "HOUSEHOLD_DEBT": 1980.0},
}
return pd.DataFrame(data).T.rename_axis("YEAR")
def fetch_and_cache(force=False, no_api=False):
"""ECOS에서 가져오거나 캐시 반환"""
CACHE_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
if CACHE_FILE.exists() and not force:
print(f" 캐시 로딩: {CACHE_FILE}")
df = pd.read_csv(CACHE_FILE, index_col="YEAR")
print(f" 변수: {len(df.columns)}개, 연도: {df.index.min()}~{df.index.max()}")
return df
if no_api:
print(" API 없이 fallback 사용")
df = _build_fallback()
df.to_csv(CACHE_FILE)
print(f" 캐시 저장: {CACHE_FILE} ({len(df.columns)}개 변수)")
return df
# ECOS API 수집
print(" ECOS API에서 데이터 수집 중...")
# TODO: API 실제 호출 구현 (config.yaml에서 API key 로딩)
# 우선 fallback 사용
print(" (API 미구현 — fallback 사용)")
df = _build_fallback()
df.to_csv(CACHE_FILE)
print(f" 캐시 저장: {CACHE_FILE} ({len(df.columns)}개 변수)")
return df
def load_macro_data(start_year=2000, end_year=2025) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""메인 파이프라인용 거시데이터 로딩"""
if CACHE_FILE.exists():
df = pd.read_csv(CACHE_FILE, index_col="YEAR")
else:
df = _build_fallback()
CACHE_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
df.to_csv(CACHE_FILE)
return df.loc[start_year:end_year]
if __name__ == "__main__":
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="ECOS 거시경제변수 수집기")
parser.add_argument("--force", action="store_true", help="캐시 무시하고 재수집")
parser.add_argument("--no-api", action="store_true", help="API 없이 fallback만 사용")
args = parser.parse_args()
print("=" * 60)
print(" ECOS 거시경제변수 수집기")
print("=" * 60)
df = fetch_and_cache(force=args.force, no_api=args.no_api)
print(f"\n === 변수 목록 ({len(df.columns)}개) ===")
for col in df.columns:
vals = df[col].dropna()
print(f" {col:25s} | {vals.min():>12.2f} ~ {vals.max():>12.2f} | {len(vals)} obs")
print(f"\n === 최근 5년 ===")
print(df.tail())
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